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TRUMP’S CRYPTO OPPORTUNITY-AND AMERICA’S [Arthur Herman-HIC]

The speech former president Donald Trump gave at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville TN on July 27 was a landmark event in American politics. It managed to galvanize America‘s crypto community in ways that shook his Democrat opposition in the Kamala Harris campaign. It may even have changed the odds for the 2024 election in Trump’s favor. More than that, it could trigger a new era in digital technology and cybersecurity―including (if it‘s done right) a new era in quantum inform
2024.08.23 11:36
Excess Capacity, Industrial Subsidies, and Trade Conflict [Robert Dohner - HIC]

Nothing Exceeds Like Excess International trade conflict brought about by excess capacity and cut-price exports has been a recurring feature on international relations going back at least until the Great Depression in the 1930s. The steel industry has long been prone to excess capacity, from Europe and Japan in the 1970s and 80s, the former Soviet Union in the 1990s, and China since 2000, but the steel industry is hardly alone. China now faces the most recent outbreak of charges of excess capaci
2024.08.19 11:16
Why Does Japan Remain Cash-Centric Society? [Sayuri Shirai - HIC]

Last month, three types of banknotes―10,000 yen, 5,000 yen, and 1,000 yen―were issued in Japan with new portraits and designs. The issuance of new banknotes is to prevent counterfeiting. Using the same portrait for too long makes it easier to produce counterfeit bills, so changing the portraits, texts, and design while incorporating the latest anti-counterfeiting technologies makes forgery more difficult. This time, a world-first 3D hologram technology has been used, where the portrait appears t
2024.08.16 11:20
Demographic Aging and Fiscal Challenge [Sagiri Kitao - HIC]

The demographic structure in many countries is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by rapidly declining fertility rates and increasing longevity. This shift results in a growing proportion of elderly individuals, which in turn places substantial pressure on fiscal balance due to soaring public expenditures needed to finance age-related social insurance programs. As illustrated in Figure 1, the old-age dependency ratio ― which is the ratio of individuals aged 65 and above to those age
2024.08.14 11:40
Reforms, Investments, and Fiscal Responsibility - Decoding India’s Union Budget [Bibek Debroy - HIC]

The Union Budget is the financial equivalent of the Mad Hatter‘s tea party in “Alice in Wonderland,” a big spectacle where every number, clause, and comma is debated with fervor, sometimes bordering on the absurd. Governments aim for their budgets to capture the nation’s imagination, with implications as profound as Alice‘s fall down the rabbit hole. As Alice once pondered, “Curiouser and curiouser!”―so too do the complexities and controversies of the Un
2024.08.12 11:12
Western Populism and China’s Leadership: A Train Clash? [Alicia Garcia-Herrero - HIC]

The European Elections, which had long been considered a boring political event, especially outside of Europe, has drawn enormous attention in different places, including in China. The results point to populism (especially far-right one) taking a stronger hold in the EU, which has drawn the attention of many observers even outside of the EU as well as in China. A more populist nature of European institutions may have important implications for the EU‘s stance as regards US-China strategic
2024.08.08 11:12
“Is Benefit-Cost Analysis Helpful for Environmental Regulation?” [Robert N. Stavins - HIC]

As climate change and other environmental, resource, and energy policies, programs, and regulations are now under consideration by countries around the world, this is a good time to step back from the political fray that dominates debates in many countries, and reflect instead on some fundamental questions about environmental policy from an economic perspective. One such question is whether economic analysis ― in particular, the comparison of the benefits and costs of proposed policies ― can pla
2024.08.05 11:12
AI Replacing Humans vs AI Augmenting Humans [Bruce Schneier-HIC]

There are two ways AI can start doing tasks that previously were the exclusive purview of humans. The first is that they can replace people. That is, they will become teachers, therapists, and travel agents. They will fly planes and drive cars. The will write newspaper articles. We won‘t need the people anymore, because the AIs are doing the work. The other is that they augment people, making them more effective. They will help draft legislation, allowing human legislators to propose even
2024.07.30 11:13
Thinking About Auto Fuel Efficiency Standards [Robert N. Stavins - HIC]

On May 19th, 2009, President Barak Obama announced new Federal fuel-efficiency standards for motor-vehicles that would make the then current standards ― known as Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards significantly more stringent. These CAFE standards measure compliance as the average of a company‘s entire fleet of cars, and so are more flexible and less costly than model-by-model standards, better matching consumer preferences and lowering production costs. Other good news was th
2024.07.24 11:24
How to solve Japan''s labor shortage? [SHIN-ICHI FUKUDA - HIC]

As the domestic economy recovers, the Japanese economy is facing serious labor shortages. The ratio of job openings to applicants, which temporarily declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, has increased since the fall of 2022 and remained at a high level. The shortage is particularly severe for construction workers, drivers, and caregivers. Even in the service sector, the number of applicants for new job openings is less than half of the number needed. The impact of labor shortages on business ma
2024.07.22 11:21