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Why Won’t the Dollar Topple? [Robert Dohner - HIC]

“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”-Mark Twain The demise of the US dollar as the leading global currency has been an enduring storyline over the past half century. As a stage play, it has outlived a succession of leading actors, from the Deutschemark in the 1970s, the yen in the 1980s, the euro in the early 2000‘s, and the renminbi more recently. The enduring interest is not hard to explain. The US share of global GDP has declined significantly since WWII, with
2024.06.18 11:19
China’s increasingly large manufacturing production to hit the wall in Western economy [Alicia Garcia-Herrero - HIC]

Since President Xi Jinping announced the rise of the “New Production Forces” as China‘s annual plenary sessions of the National People’s Congress and of the Chinese People‘s Political Consultative Conference (so-called “Two Sessions”), industrial production has been growing much faster than consumption and exports have been increasing. This is particularly the case of green tech exports which are sectors increasingly dominated by China in the global aren
2024.06.17 11:08
India’s Growth Prospects [Bibek Debroy - HIC]

In 2023, India‘s GDP reached $3.73 trillion and is poised to break the $4 trillion barrier in 2024. Initially aiming for $5 trillion by 2024-25, COVID-19 nudged this target to 2026 or 2027. Much like Alice in Wonderland, who questioned the Cheshire Cat about which path to take, India too had its moments of uncertainty. Yet, unlike Alice who declared, “I don’t much care where,” India has its sights firmly set on a clear destination. As the Cheshire Cat wisely noted, &ldquo
2024.06.13 11:43
Countries‘ Efforts to Promote Corporate Climate Information Disclosure Will Shape Future Capital Inflows in Asia [Sayuri Shirai - HIC]

The pace of global warming has been accelerating beyond expectations. Since 2023, the global average temperature rise relative to the pre-industrial era has already exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius―the threshold set under the Paris Agreement and emphasized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. If such high temperature last for an extended period, it will raise major concerns globally over the failure to meet global targets. The world will then face an accelerated materialization of clima
2024.06.10 11:15
Is India the Next China? [Barry Eichengreen-HIC]

In a world economy desperate for a growth engine, many observers suggest that India is the new China. Just as China‘s GDP grew at high-single-digit rates for several decades, India is now poised, they suggest, to grow at high-single-rates for an extended period. With ample, low-cost labor, India can serve as workshop for the world. Its emergence will support the maintenance of global supply chains, as evidenced by Apple’s decision to expand iPhone production in the country. India wil
2024.06.05 11:23
The Summit of the Future [Jeffrey D. Sachs - HIC]

Geopolitics are at a crossroads. Will the world unite to meet common challenges; will it divide along rival blocs led by the US and China; or will it spiral into a disastrous world war? All three outcomes are possible, yet only the first path ― global unity ― will truly serve human needs. The UN member states will meet at the UN on September 22-23 at the Summit of the Future. This is a vital moment for the world‘s nations to recommit to global unity under the UN Charter. The United States
2024.05.30 11:39
AI is not a silver bullet [Diane Coyle - HIC]

The economic forecasts about short-term prospects published by the International Monetary Fund tend to get the most attention: how will different economies perform this year? Will next year be better or worse than last year? But the most interesting―and discouraging―aspect of the forecasts the IMF released last month is what might happen in the longer term. Or rather, what might not happen. For the IMF‘s World Economic Outlook focuses on what it describes as “a significant and broad-
2024.05.23 11:29
New Bank Notes May Change Japanese Economy [SHIN-ICHI FUKUDA - HIC]

The Bank of Japan will begin issuing new banknotes this July. This will be the first new banknote issue in approximately 20 years. In Japan, despite its irreversible shift to a cashless society, the demand for cash remains strong among most households. Cash is an important medium of exchange that can be safely used by anyone, anytime, and anywhere. Therefore, an issuance of new banknotes based on advances in printing technology is essential for preventing counterfeiting and maintaining the relia
2024.05.20 11:11
“Green Jobs” [Robert N. Stavins - HIC]

With the United States, Europe, and other parts of the world trying to address climate change while maintaining domestic employment levels via what are clearly protectionist policies, this is a good time to reflect on the very concept of “green jobs.” The January 12, 2009 issue of The New Yorker included an article by Elizabeth Kolbert, profiling Van Jones, founder of Green for All. In the article, “Greening the Ghetto: Can a Remedy Serve for Both Global Warming and Poverty,&rd
2024.05.14 11:16
Education Fever: Status Struggles and Fertility Dilemma in East Asia [Sagiri Kitao - HIC]

When asked about their reasons for not achieving their desired family size, Japanese couples consistently cite the overwhelming financial burden of childcare and education as the primary obstacle. Today, parents allocate significantly more resources to each child compared to previous decades. The financial burden encompasses not only tuition and school fees but also expenditures on a myriad of extracurricular activities, as well as enrollment in evening and weekend cram schools, often extending
2024.05.08 11:28