FAO food price index hits 133.9 in October, down 1.2 percent
Grains drag index lower as wheat, corn weaken
Sugar and vegetable oils buck the trend
Global food prices reversed course for the first time in four months in October, pulled lower by falling wheat and corn prices. Sugar bucked the trend, surging 6.6 percent in a single month on disruptions to Brazil's sugarcane harvest, while vegetable oil prices continued to climb.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said Saturday that its analysis of data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization showed the FAO Food Price Index stood at 133.9 points in October, down 1.2 percent from 135.6 points the previous month. It was the first decline after three consecutive months of gains — from 130.1 points in June to 131.7 in July, 133.9 in August and 135.6 in September.
The October reading was still 5.9 percent above the year-earlier level of 126.4 points. The FAO Food Price Index tracks international prices across five commodity groups — grains, vegetable oils, meat, dairy and sugar — benchmarked against the 2014–2016 average of 100.
Grains led the overall decline. The grain price index fell 4.5 percent from the previous month to 116.8 points in October, the steepest drop among the five commodity groups.
International wheat prices reversed a four-month rising streak as global demand softened and Argentina's production outlook improved. Expectations that export restrictions from the Black Sea region would ease also weighed on prices, though persistent logistics disruptions limited the decline.
Corn prices also retreated after hitting a three-year high in September, as US harvest-season supplies came to market and major South American exporters offered ample supply prospects. Barley and sorghum prices fell in tandem. Rice bucked the grain trend, rising 1.6 percent amid harvest delays and adverse weather in some exporting countries.
Meat and dairy prices also fell. The meat price index dropped 1.2 percent from the previous month to 125.5 points, with pork prices weakening as ample EU supply met sluggish international demand. Lamb prices fell on seasonal supply increases in Australia, and beef prices edged down as well.
The dairy price index slipped 1.1 percent to 117.8 points. Butter and cheese prices fell on abundant supply and weak buying demand. Skim milk powder moved in the opposite direction, rising sharply as import demand held firm while immediately available supplies remained tight.
While grains and meat prices retreated, sugar posted a sharp advance.
The sugar price index climbed 6.6 percent from the previous month to 121.3 points in October, bringing the year-on-year gain to 28.9 percent.
The main driver was rainfall in Brazil's center-south region — the world's largest sugar producer — which disrupted sugarcane harvesting and crushing operations. In India, below-average and unevenly distributed monsoon rains heightened concerns about the production outlook. Forecasts of lower output in the EU and Thailand added further upward pressure on prices.
The vegetable oil price index edged up 0.3 percent from the previous month to 199.2 points, putting it 17.6 percent above the year-earlier level.
Soybean oil prices rose to their highest level since late 2022, driven by biofuel demand and seasonal supply declines in South America. Sunflower oil prices rebounded on logistics disruptions in the Black Sea region and tight export availability. Rapeseed oil moved in the opposite direction, falling on seasonal supply increases and weak demand from the biodiesel sector.
Meanwhile, the FAO projected global grain production for 2026–2027 at 2.9995 billion tons, a 1.7 percent decline from the previous year. Global grain consumption is forecast to rise 0.2 percent to 2.9714 billion tons, while end-of-period stocks are expected to grow 1.8 percent to 974.7 million tons.
Domestic consumer prices for agricultural and livestock products continued to fall independently of international food price trends. South Korea's consumer price index for farm and livestock products fell 2.6 percent year-on-year in October, a steeper decline than the 1.0 percent drop recorded in September. Overall consumer prices rose 2.8 percent over the same period.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said it plans to monitor the supply and demand of key kimchi-making ingredients — including napa cabbage and radish — and take preemptive steps to stabilize supplies as the peak kimchi-making season gets underway.
adastra@heraldcorp.com
