An advertisement for a SpaceX-related exchange-traded fund (ETF) is displayed on an elevator monitor inside a Seoul apartment building on Sunday. [Yonhap]
An advertisement for a SpaceX-related exchange-traded fund (ETF) is displayed on an elevator monitor inside a Seoul apartment building on Sunday. [Yonhap]

SpaceX made a strong stock market debut, surging nearly 20 percent on its first day of trading, but the rally has done little to ease investor anxiety. With Mirae Asset Securities failing to secure an IPO allotment — effectively shutting out retail investors from buying in at the offering price — the market is now divided between concerns over stretched valuations and optimism about the company's long-term growth.

According to the financial investment industry, SpaceX closed at $161.11 on its first day on the Nasdaq on June 12, a gain of 19.34 percent from its IPO price.

Interest from South Korean investors was intense. Mirae Asset Securities had conducted a SpaceX IPO subscription process but ultimately failed to secure any shares, drawing a wave of complaints from customers.

On Naver's stock discussion boards, some investors expressed frustration, saying they had "missed the chance to invest at the offering price" and calling the outcome "a betrayal of investors." Some, however, noted that in the US IPO market, share allotments are ultimately at the discretion of the lead underwriters, making it difficult to hold Mirae Asset Securities responsible.

Investor attention has naturally shifted to where the stock goes from here. Two broad camps have emerged in the market.

One camp warns of overvaluation. The sharp first-day surge suggests that much of the upside has already been priced in, critics argue. The space industry's need for sustained heavy capital investment, combined with uncertainty over when profits will materialize, adds to the concern.

SpaceX's current valuation already far exceeds that of traditional aerospace companies. Depending on the pace of Starship development and the monetization of its space internet business, valuation pressure could intensify further.

The growth camp, however, is equally vocal. Choi Geon, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, argued in a recent report that SpaceX's successful listing should be read not simply as the IPO of a space company, but as the formal launch of Elon Musk's "space civilization project."

According to the report, the $75 billion raised through the IPO is earmarked for Starship development, Starlink expansion and the construction of orbital data centers. SpaceX's real investment thesis, the report argues, lies less in the space business itself than in its potential synergies with Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus.

Choi said SpaceX and Optimus are closely linked across AI, communications infrastructure and semiconductor supply chains.

xAI's generative AI model Grok is expected to combine with Tesla's Full Self-Driving system to serve as Optimus's brain, while Starlink is projected to handle the robot's real-time communications infrastructure. Choi also forecast that through the semiconductor production frameworks being pursued by Tesla and SpaceX, in-house AI chips dedicated to Optimus could become a reality.

The AI infrastructure SpaceX has built could simultaneously address Optimus's intelligence, connectivity and production cost challenges — creating an ecosystem that rivals would struggle to replicate, the report said.

The market's next focal point is already moving toward Optimus. Korea Investment & Securities projected that after the SpaceX listing, the key momentum driver will shift to the third-generation Optimus, scheduled for release in the third quarter of 2026.

For investors, it ultimately comes down to a choice. In the near term, the post-listing valuation premium and the potential for heightened volatility must be weighed carefully. Over the longer term, however, some argue that if Elon Musk's vision of connecting the space industry, AI and humanoid robots into a single ecosystem becomes reality, even the current valuation could prove to be an underestimate.

Ko Tae-bong, head of research at iM Securities, said it is difficult to immediately quantify SpaceX's long-term value, but added that "the business model itself spans Starlink, data centers, rockets and more — so the ancillary effects over the long term will be enormous."

He added that "the United States is pouring resources into space development as part of its effort to outcompete China in the struggle for global dominance, and SpaceX is the core private-sector company driving that effort — when you factor in the possibility of a future merger with Tesla, the company's value goes well beyond its current profitability."


th5@heraldcorp.com
jiyun@heraldcorp.com