Houthi rebels hold a rally to recruit fighters in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on Thursday (local time). [AFP]
Houthi rebels hold a rally to recruit fighters in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on Thursday (local time). [AFP]

Yemen's pro-Iran Houthi rebels, locked in daily armed conflict with Saudi Arabia, are rapidly seizing control of a key maritime corridor in the southern Red Sea. The advance is reshaping the dynamics of the Iran war.

The United States and Iran remain locked in a prolonged standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with neither side gaining a clear advantage or making progress in negotiations. The Houthis, meanwhile, are rapidly tipping the balance of the war by seizing control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

Reuters and other outlets reported Thursday (local time) that the Houthi rebels seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha and swiftly took control of the strategically vital Hanish Islands. The advances came just a month after the Houthis declared their entry into the Iran war.

Yemeni government forces and Saudi-led coalition troops have rushed reinforcements to the strait to build a defensive line. However, sources say the effort has done little to blunt the Houthi offensive. The Houthis have also launched fierce attacks on Saudi territory itself, forcing Riyadh to focus on defending its own homeland. Air raid sirens have sounded up to four times a day near air bases in southwestern Saudi Arabia as the Houthi strikes continue.

Security experts described the Houthi offensive as part of a calculated Iranian "asymmetric coalition strategy." The US security analysis firm Eagle Intelligence and others characterized the situation as a "dual-chokepoint" crisis. Both of the Middle East's key logistics arteries are under threat at the same time. With the Strait of Hormuz already blocked, disruptions to the Red Sea are now threatening the global energy supply chain, they said. The Red Sea had served as a detour route around Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia in particular is taking a hit not only to its security but also to its economy. When the Strait of Hormuz came under threat, Riyadh quickly shifted more crude oil exports to the East-West pipeline, known as Petroline. This increased its reliance on the detour route through the Red Sea. But if the Houthis also seize the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait -- the Red Sea's southern gateway -- both of the Arabian Peninsula's east and west export routes would be cut off.

The Yemen-based security research institute Abaad Studies said the Houthi rebels have demonstrated the capacity to effectively paralyze the shipping route without fully occupying the strait. They achieved this through asymmetric capabilities such as drones and missiles, combined with their control of Mocha port. With US naval power concentrated on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and its proxies have seized the opportunity, according to the institute. They have gained simultaneous control over both of the Middle East's key energy corridors. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also recently commented on the Houthi bid to seize the Red Sea, saying, "There is clearly an Iranian hand behind this."

Saudi Arabia recently sent a warning through mediator Pakistan, demanding that Iran halt the attacks. In response, Iran drew a line, saying, "The Houthis act independently." The Houthis likewise claimed that international merchant shipping remains safe, insisting the standoff is strictly a matter between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Experts, however, view this as no more than diplomatic rhetoric aimed at avoiding responsibility for direct involvement.

Amid growing fears that the second key transport route carrying Middle Eastern energy could also be blocked, Brent crude prices jumped 3.5 percent Thursday, breaking above $100 per barrel. There is an alternative route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, but it would add more than 10 days to shipping times. The resulting rise in freight and insurance costs could reignite global inflation concerns that are already running high.

The Houthi advance into the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait appears set to become an unexpected major setback for US President Donald Trump ahead of the November midterm elections. For Iran's government, which had been on the back foot under US maritime blockades and sweeping economic sanctions, the escalation could serve as a powerful card. It could ratchet up regional tensions and pressure Washington into concessions.


kate01@heraldcorp.com