A diagram showing the inflow of Yellow Sea bottom cold water into the West Sea coast during summer, alongside snow crab catch data [National Institute of Fisheries Science]
A diagram showing the inflow of Yellow Sea bottom cold water into the West Sea coast during summer, alongside snow crab catch data [National Institute of Fisheries Science]

The National Institute of Fisheries Science projected this autumn's West Sea snow crab catch at 12,000 to 16,000 tons — roughly 69 to 92 percent of last year's 17,423 tons. Compared with the five-year average, the forecast stands at 92 to 123 percent.

The institute attributed the expected decline to a weakening of the Yellow Sea bottom cold water mass, which it said would scatter snow crab fishing grounds across the entire West Sea and reduce catch efficiency per net.

The underlying stock condition of West Sea snow crab this year is nonetheless assessed as healthy. A strengthening of the Yellow Sea warm current last winter boosted crab recruitment, and a bottom trawl survey the institute conducted in July found an average crab distribution density of 345 kilograms per square kilometer — about 2.4 times the 146 kilograms per square kilometer recorded last year.

The institute's West Sea Fisheries Research Center has published spring and autumn snow crab fishing outlooks every year since 2011 to support stable fishing operations. To improve forecast accuracy, it uses a machine learning-based AI prediction model trained on snow crab stock levels and catch volumes, winter Yellow Sea warm current transport, and coastal water temperatures.

"The West Sea snow crab stock has remained relatively stable in recent years, but catch efficiency is expected to decline due to the dispersal of fishing grounds," institute director Kwon Soon-wook said. "We will focus our research capabilities on reducing uncertainty in the field based on solid scientific evidence."


kaf2002@heraldcorp.com