Opta puts South Korea's round-of-32 chances at 73% on Friday

Ecuador's comeback win over Germany dims South Korea's wild-card hopes

A South Korean soccer fan weeps after the team's final group-stage match against South Africa. [Reuters]
A South Korean soccer fan weeps after the team's final group-stage match against South Africa. [Reuters]

South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 as a wild-card entry stood at 73% as of Friday morning, after the team failed to secure automatic qualification and now faces an extraordinarily complex set of scenarios. Ecuador's stunning comeback victory over Germany to claim a wild-card berth has left South Korea with no choice but to wait and watch how other results unfold.

Soccer statistics provider Opta put South Korea's probability of reaching the round of 32 at the 2026 North America World Cup via the wild card at 73%, based on simulation results. That marks a drop of more than 10 percentage points from the high-80s range the team had enjoyed after Thursday's match against South Africa — a game widely panned as one of the worst performances in the team's World Cup history.

The decline reflects Ecuador's dramatic turnaround in the Group E finale, where the Ecuadorians — given little chance of advancing — upset Group E leaders Germany to leapfrog South Korea in the wild-card race. Ecuador entered the match with one draw and one loss, then clinched their round-of-32 spot in one stroke, finishing with three points and a goal difference of zero.

Bosnia, third in Group B with one win, one draw and one loss — four points and a goal difference of minus-1, with five goals scored — have also already secured their place in the round of 32.

A record 48 nations are competing at this World Cup, divided into 12 groups. The top two finishers from each group — 24 teams in total — advance to the round of 32, along with the eight best third-place finishers across all groups. Third-place teams are ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play score and the latest FIFA rankings, in that order.

US sports outlet The Athletic projected that third-place teams with four or more points have a 99% or better chance of advancing. Teams with three points — like South Korea — have a 70% chance, though that figure climbs to 99% for those with a goal difference of zero or better.

Among teams yet to play their third group-stage match, Paraguay (Group D) and Algeria (Group J) are tied with South Korea on points but trail on goal difference, both sitting at minus-2.


balme@heraldcorp.com