SpaceX IPO: Boon or burden for Bitcoin? [Crypto360]

Mega IPO stirs risk appetite

Bitcoin ETF selling pressure seen easing post-listing

SpaceX's 18,712 BTC holdings draw attention

Bitcoin has been trading near the $63,000 level, holding steady amid hopes for easing tensions between the United States and Iran. While Elon Musk's space company SpaceX made its debut on US markets and lifted risk appetite broadly, the digital asset market is weighing both the short-term drag from capital reallocation and the possibility that selling pressure on Bitcoin ETFs may ease now that the listing is underway.

As of 11:30 a.m. Saturday, Bitcoin was trading at $63,655, up 0.25 percent over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency had climbed as high as $64,000 during Friday's US trading session before giving back those gains to settle near $63,000. Trading volume over the past 24 hours fell 13.43 percent to $25.64 billion.

Markets are divided on how SpaceX's Nasdaq debut will affect Bitcoin. SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq overnight, setting a new record as the largest initial public offering in history. Shares opened at $150, above the offering price of $135, and closed at $161 on the first day of trading. The closing market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion, placing SpaceX sixth among US-listed companies — behind Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.

In the digital asset market, however, analysts say SpaceX's listing has not been a straightforward positive. Ahead of the mega IPO, some investors are believed to have trimmed risk asset positions to raise cash, a process that may have generated selling pressure on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. That dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin remained range-bound with little price movement even on the day of the SpaceX listing.

Standard Chartered said Bitcoin may have formed a floor near $59,000 in recent weeks. Geoff Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, said some investors may have sold Bitcoin ETFs to raise cash ahead of the SpaceX IPO, and that the related selling pressure could ease now that the listing has begun. He described the recent pullback as a sign that "crypto winter is over."

CoinShares identified the macro environment — rather than SpaceX — as the key variable for Bitcoin's price outlook. While the US economy has held up on the back of solid employment data, inflationary pressure remains, driven largely by energy prices. Although the core consumer price index came in below market expectations, rising gasoline and energy costs have pushed up overall inflation and limited expectations for a Federal Reserve policy pivot.

CoinShares also noted that net inflows into global digital asset investment products have been "virtually flat" this year, calling it "similar to the pattern seen during the tightening cycle of 2022 to 2024." The firm said outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs largely reflect the unwinding of basis trades, with investors reducing risk exposure in the face of uncertainty.

The market's pull toward AI and mega-cap technology stocks is also weighing on Bitcoin, and the SpaceX listing is part of that same trend. CoinShares said Bitcoin has "repeatedly attempted to break above $80,000 but failed each time," adding that "crypto investment opportunities are currently being crowded out by AI-related investments." The firm warned that "a sustained rally will be difficult to expect until the Fed eases monetary policy and inflation expectations decline."

SpaceX's listing has also been read as a demonstration of blockchain infrastructure's potential. Before the IPO, pre-IPO perpetual contracts on SpaceX were already trading on on-chain derivatives platforms such as Hyperliquid. A blockchain-based market, in effect, performed price discovery before the stock exchange did. Perpetuals are open-ended derivative contracts that allow traders to bet on the future price of an asset; unlike standard futures, they carry no expiration date.

SpaceX's Bitcoin holdings are also drawing market attention. The company disclosed in a securities filing with the SEC that it holds 18,712 bitcoin. The listing therefore carries a dual significance: it marks the stock market debut of a mega-cap technology company and the emergence of a major publicly traded firm with direct Bitcoin exposure.

Middle East geopolitical risk remains another variable. Recent optimism over progress in US-Iran negotiations has helped lift risk assets, but uncertainty persists ahead of any final agreement. CoinShares warned that if the Iran conflict escalates into a sharp spike in oil prices, advanced economies could face stagflationary pressure — simultaneous inflation and economic slowdown. In that scenario, Bitcoin would likely track the broader sell-off in risk assets in the near term.

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