People Power Party scores surprise wins in Seoul, Busan Buk-gap and Pyeongtaek-eul
Analysts cite high early-voting rates and voters who chose self-interest over party loyalty
Exit polls conducted by the three major terrestrial broadcasters — KBS, MBC and SBS — diverged significantly from actual vote counts in Wednesday's local elections and National Assembly by-elections. Analysts say the gap reflects the inability to poll early voters under election law, as well as a failure to capture "shy conservatives" who backed the People Power Party at the ballot box but declined to say so in surveys and exit polls.
The exit polls projected the Democratic Party of Korea winning 11 of 16 regional government head races, with the PPP leading in one and four others — Busan, Daegu, Gangwon Province and North Jeolla Province — too close to call.
In the Seoul mayoral race, the polls forecast Democratic candidate Jeong Won-o winning with 51.4 percent against PPP incumbent Oh Se-hoon's 46.0 percent, a margin of 5.4 percentage points. In Daegu, PPP candidate Choo Kyung-ho was projected to narrowly edge out Democratic candidate Kim Boo-kyum, 49.9 percent to 49.1 percent.
The by-elections were also expected to be tight. In Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi Province, Cho Kuk of the Rebuilding Korea Party (31.1 percent), PPP candidate Yoo Eui-dong (30.6 percent) and Democratic candidate Kim Yong-nam (30.3 percent) were projected within one percentage point of each other. In Busan Buk-gap, Democratic candidate Ha Jung-woo led with 42.6 percent against independent Han Dong-hoon's 41.6 percent — a margin suggesting a ruling-party loss.
As counting progressed, however, the results diverged sharply from those projections. In the Seoul mayoral race, Oh's vote share reached 48.66 percent by around 7:20 a.m. Thursday, pulling ahead of Jeong's 48.62 percent.
In South Gyeongsang Province, PPP candidate Park Wan-su also defied the exit polls to win the gubernatorial race. The polls had projected Democratic candidate Kim Kyung-su taking 54.3 percent to Park's 45.7 percent — a gap of 8.6 percentage points. With 97.57 percent of ballots counted as of 9:15 a.m. Thursday, Park had secured 51.46 percent against Kim's 48.53 percent.
In Pyeongtaek-eul, considered the most fiercely contested of the by-election races, PPP candidate Yoo Eui-dong won with 34.64 percent, ahead of Democratic candidate Kim Yong-nam at 28.87 percent and Cho Kuk at 27.38 percent.
Busan Buk-gap also produced a surprise. Around 1:50 a.m. Thursday, Han Dong-hoon crossed ahead of Ha Jung-woo in what observers called a "golden cross" reversal, ultimately winning with 42.96 percent to Ha's 41.26 percent.
Analysts attributed the exit polls' inaccuracy partly to high early-voting turnout, and partly to voters giving a second chance to conservatives who had distanced themselves from the pro-Yoon line.
Political commentator Kim Sang-il said this election recorded the second-highest early-voting rate of any local election in South Korean history. "Because exit polling of early voters is not permitted, the high early-voting rate likely amplified the inaccuracy of the results," he said.
He added that candidates perceived as having resisted or suffered politically from the pro-Yoon line tended to perform relatively well. "In those districts, moderate conservatives appear to have given those candidates one more chance," he said.
In Seoul, Oh Se-hoon's signature urban redevelopment initiative — known as the "Sintong Plan" — bolstered his appeal. Analysts also raised the possibility that some voters who publicly expressed support for the ruling party in polls and exit surveys ultimately voted differently when it came down to it.
A government official said many voters who outwardly declared loyalty to President Lee Jae Myung and the Democratic Party nonetheless chose their own interests — particularly on real estate — when casting their ballot. "It also appears that the conventional wisdom that early voting favors the ruling party has been proven wrong," the official said.
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