Second only to 2018's 50%; Maine, Minnesota, Michigan top 60%

Opposition voters flood polls amid economic discontent, Iran war backlash

US President Donald Trump speaks with reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday (local time), with a cap reading "VETO" sitting on his desk. Trump had signaled during the midterm campaign that he would veto Democratic-led legislation. [AFP]
US President Donald Trump speaks with reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday (local time), with a cap reading "VETO" sitting on his desk. Trump had signaled during the midterm campaign that he would veto Democratic-led legislation. [AFP]

The Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the US midterm elections was driven in part by the second-highest voter turnout in more than a century, analysts say. President Donald Trump mobilized not only his supporters but also his opponents, while economic discontent and a backlash against the Iran war galvanized Democratic voters.

According to the Washington Post on Saturday (local time), the University of Florida's Election Lab put preliminary turnout for this year's midterms at 49 percent — roughly one in two eligible American voters.

That figure is the second-highest midterm turnout on record, trailing only the 50 percent recorded in 2018, which was itself the highest since 1914.

Democratic gains were particularly pronounced in states where turnout was highest.

Maine recorded a turnout of 65.7 percent, while Minnesota and Michigan came in at 65.2 percent and 63.2 percent, respectively.

In all three states, Democratic candidates won both the US Senate and gubernatorial races.

In Arizona, Democrats seized the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in 60 years, part of a nationwide surge for Democratic candidates.

The average turnout in states with competitive Senate races also reached 52 percent, above the national average.

Analysts said Trump's commanding political presence paradoxically spurred Democratic voters to the polls.

Tom Bonier, a Democratic political strategist, said Trump "has had more influence on turnout over the last 100 years than anyone else," adding that Trump has "the ability to bring both supporters and opponents out to vote."

However, analysts noted that some Republican voters appeared to have turned their backs on Trump this cycle and stayed home altogether.

Daron Shaw, a Republican polling expert and professor at the University of Texas, also said high turnout worked in the Democrats' favor, contrary to initial expectations.

Shaw attributed the surge to voters angered by economic conditions, the Iran war and rising gasoline prices in its wake.

Even voters who rarely participate in elections turned out, he said, adding to the Democratic margin of victory.

"Trump is someone with a remarkable ability to mobilize people," Shaw said, "but at the same time he is one of the most powerful counter-mobilizers in history."


sjy@heraldcorp.com