AfD's landslide in Saxony-Anhalt puts first post-WWII far-right state government within reach; Merz faces firewall dilemma as either path risks coalition collapse or party revolt

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to announce at a Sept. 17 conference in Paris that Germany will join a mine-clearing mission in the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends. [Reuters]
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to announce at a Sept. 17 conference in Paris that Germany will join a mine-clearing mission in the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends. [Reuters]

The far-right Alternative for Germany party's landslide victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament election — capturing more than 44 percent of the vote — has left Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a political bind. Maintaining the so-called firewall principle that bars cooperation with the AfD risks internal revolt and a party split, while abandoning it could bring down the federal coalition government. For the first time since World War II, the prospect of a far-right party leading a German state government has become a real possibility, putting one of Germany's longest-standing political taboos to the test.

According to a tally by public broadcaster ZDF as of 11:22 p.m. Sunday (local time), the AfD secured 44.4 percent of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, winning 39 of the parliament's 83 seats — just three short of an outright majority of 42. Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union finished a distant second with 17.2 percent and 15 seats.

The center-left Social Democratic Party took 9.1 percent, the Greens 8.9 percent and the Left Party 8.6 percent, each winning eight seats. The far-left populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance took 5.2 percent for five seats. The AfD could form a state government with majority backing by securing just one other party as a coalition partner or by winning over at least three lawmakers from other parties.

Even if coalition talks fail, a minority government remains possible. If lawmakers from other parties abstain during the vote for state premier — offering passive cooperation — the AfD's candidate for the post, Ulrich Siegmund, could still be elected. No far-right party has led a German state government since the end of World War II.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the result "a historic outcome" and said the party had received "a very clear mandate to govern." She said she would reach out to state lawmakers who might be willing to support an AfD-led government, even though the party fell just short of an outright majority.

The election was also a crushing defeat for the CDU. The party's vote share fell 19.9 percentage points from the June 2021 election, dropping to less than half its previous result, while the AfD surged 23.6 percentage points. Outgoing CDU State Premier Sven Schulze sidestepped a question about whether he still supports the firewall principle, saying only that the party must analyze the reasons for its defeat.

The problem for Merz is that every option left to him carries significant political risk. Germany's major parties have long upheld the firewall principle — refusing any cooperation with the AfD — rooted in the country's experience under Nazi rule and its vigilance against anti-democratic extremism. Merz has held firmly to that principle, ruling out even passive forms of cooperation with the AfD.

According to the Wall Street Journal, if Merz insists on maintaining the firewall, the CDU would need to pursue a broad coalition spanning the SPD, the Greens, the Left Party and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. But analysts warn that strong resistance from CDU lawmakers in eastern Germany to joining hands with left-wing parties whose policy positions differ sharply from their own could trigger an internal revolt or a party split.

Some CDU figures argue that the blanket strategy of excluding the AfD has alienated voters and forced the party into coalitions with partners whose policies it does not support, producing policy gridlock. In eastern Germany, where AfD support runs strongest, divisions within the CDU over the firewall are especially pronounced.

Sudha David-Wilp, deputy director and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a US think tank, said the firewall "is a core policy of Friedrich Merz" and that it "goes to the heart of what it means to be a conservative in Germany. When you look at the AfD's pro-Russian stance or its hostility toward Europe, conservatism is the opposite of much of what the AfD stands for."

Conversely, if Merz abandons the firewall and gives the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt the latitude to work with the AfD, that too carries serious risks. It could deepen divisions within the CDU and potentially bring down the federal coalition government, in which the SPD is a partner. The SPD has made clear it will not tolerate cooperation with the AfD in any form.

In the immediate aftermath of the vote, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance formally called for the firewall policy to be scrapped, arguing that voters had rejected it. As the AfD moves beyond being a protest party and begins demanding actual governing power, the challenge facing established parties has grown considerably more complex.

The AfD's vote share ranks among the highest recorded by a single party in any German state parliament election since the 1950s. Saxony-Anhalt, however, is a former East German state with a population of about 2.3 million — a fraction of Germany's total population of about 83.5 million — meaning its direct influence on the federal government is limited.

Still, concerns are mounting that if the AfD actually forms a state government, the security and intelligence implications could be far-reaching. Control of the state government would give the party access to the state police and the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency.

The agency monitors extremist organizations. Last May, it announced plans to formally designate the AfD as an "unconstitutional right-wing extremist organization," but a court ruling has temporarily suspended that designation. The Wall Street Journal reported that German federal officials and security figures are worried that the AfD, which has openly displayed pro-Russian sympathies, could use control of a state government to gain access to classified intelligence.

Merz now faces a decision between the principles that have long kept far-right parties from power in Germany and the new political reality created by the election results. Either path risks shaking the cohesion of the CDU and the stability of the federal coalition, making this local election a critical test for his government.


sjy@heraldcorp.com