North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump shake hands across the Military Demarcation Line at Panmunjom in June 2019. [Yonhap]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump shake hands across the Military Demarcation Line at Panmunjom in June 2019. [Yonhap]

Concerns are mounting that Donald Trump may strike a "dangerous deal" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un — one that effectively accepts Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal — as the South Korean government watches closely for how it will respond.

Seoul plans to work closely with Washington through diplomatic channels to ensure its position is adequately reflected in any North Korea-US dialogue. On the military front, it intends to counter the North Korean nuclear threat by reinforcing confidence in the US extended deterrence, or nuclear umbrella.

In diplomatic circles on Friday, concern is growing that Trump — with US midterm elections in November and a pressing need for foreign policy wins — may open talks with Kim by accepting, or placing on the agenda, North Korea's demand to be recognized as a nuclear state. Trump has even set a deadline, saying he wants to meet Kim before the end of the year.

Should negotiations be limited to arms reduction talks aimed only at scaling back or capping long-range nuclear capabilities — such as intercontinental ballistic missiles — that threaten the US mainland, the "complete denuclearization" principle upheld in the 2018 Singapore agreement and maintained by the Joe Biden administration could in effect be abandoned.

Those fears deepened after Trump dodged a direct question Wednesday about whether denuclearization remained his goal.

For the South Korean government, denuclearization is a non-negotiable objective. The Lee Jae Myung administration's phased denuclearization plan does involve arms reduction talks, starting from a freeze on North Korea's nuclear capabilities, but the ultimate goal remains reduction and elimination of the North's nuclear arsenal.

Underlying the persistent anxiety is Trump's tendency to make impulsive decisions without adequately consulting allies. He recently announced a reduction in joint US-South Korea military exercises without prior coordination with Seoul — a move that even the Department of State and the US Department of Defense reportedly learned about only after seeing his social media post.

Amid this, calls for South Korea to pursue its own independent nuclear armament are gaining renewed traction in some opposition quarters.

People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won noted on social media that Trump had specifically cited "57" nuclear weapons when referring to North Korea's arsenal, adding that he "did not even mention complete denuclearization."

Na said that "now, as the US North Korea policy shifts from 'elimination' to 'management,' is the time to make a frontal case for nuclear balance," adding that "the most realistic and powerful alternative is independent nuclear armament."

Independent nuclear armament, however, runs directly counter to the current government's position — and could particularly jeopardize two of its priority goals: securing the right to enrich uranium and developing nuclear-powered submarines.

The government has repeatedly stated in nuclear negotiations with the United States that it will not develop or possess nuclear weapons, and is instead pursuing a deepening of US extended deterrence.

Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back told the National Assembly's defense committee Thursday that "we cannot develop nuclear weapons" and "we must not accept US tactical nuclear weapons either," adding that the government is "consistently pursuing a policy of securing a firm US nuclear umbrella."

The Defense Ministry also said it "is not considering independent nuclear armament" and is "strengthening extended deterrence cooperation with the United States as well as its own independent deterrence and response capabilities."


rimsclub@heraldcorp.com