Kim Yo-jong, director of the Korean Workers' Party General Affairs Department [Yonhap]
Kim Yo-jong, director of the Korean Workers' Party General Affairs Department [Yonhap]

As Donald Trump's active overtures build momentum for US-North Korea dialogue, Pyongyang has issued hostile statements targeting South Korea on two consecutive days, signaling a deliberate push to sideline Seoul from the process.

Experts said Friday that North Korea's aggressive agenda-setting through its public statements makes US-North Korea dialogue increasingly likely. However, they warned that if negotiations produce a trade of nuclear freeze for sanctions relief and a reduction in joint military exercises, South Korea could face the worst possible outcome — the North Korean nuclear threat unchanged while the combined defense posture weakens. Seoul now stands at a crossroads, needing to assert itself as a "pacemaker" even as the risk of being bypassed grows.

Kim Yo-jong, director of the Korean Workers' Party General Affairs Department, said through KCNA on Thursday that "with a single word from Trump suddenly ordering a reduction in exercises, Seoul has been placed in the pitiful position of having to clear away the 'war games' it so dearly loved."

On the reduction of joint exercises, she said it would be "a 'calamity' unprecedented in history" for South Korea, adding that "it is the fate of a puppet army that has handed over its command authority to its master to be unable to utter a single word of protest against the unilateral orders of the American commander in chief." She also said South Korea "entrusts its defense and security to a foreign power yet boasts that it has more than enough ability to defend itself."

Regarding President Lee Jae-myung, she claimed he "openly paid fawning compliments, saying he respects Trump's decision to reduce exercises and that it was a weighty decision made after deep deliberation, while turning around behind closed doors to talk of self-reliant defense and independent military capability to prepare for the worst-case scenario."

She added that "Lee Jae-myung's double-faced words and deeds, different inside and out, reflect South Korea's anxious and contradictory psychology," and that "it is a reality the whole world is witnessing that American security support is no longer free."

The statement came just one day after a relatively restrained message that left room for US-North Korea dialogue, yet used mocking language directed squarely at South Korea — a move analysts read as a strategic effort to separate the US-North Korea relationship from inter-Korean relations and exclude Seoul from any future process.

The situation has grown more acute as Trump effectively legitimized North Korea as a nuclear state by citing the specific figure of 57 nuclear warheads, leaving South Korea to grapple with an unprecedented security challenge. On Thursday, one day before the conclusion of the Ulchi Freedom Shield CPX, North Korea also fired more than 10 short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea.

Lee Kwan-se, a former vice minister of the Ministry of Unification, said North Korea's recent moves suggest US-North Korea dialogue is likely to materialize. "North Korea is laying out through its statements what it intends to say in talks with the United States," he said. "The missile launch is also an expression of 'get a clear read on the hair-trigger situation.'"

On Trump's reference to "57 nuclear warheads," Lee said: "There is a difference between saying 'that person is wealthy' and citing their specific account balance. Naming the exact number carries that kind of weight. It amounts to actively acknowledging North Korea's nuclear status."

He also expressed concern about what a potential deal between the two sides might look like. "The talks could drift toward a pattern of 'we will ease sanctions if North Korea freezes its nuclear program,'" he said.

Ban Gil-joo, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, advised that "South Korea must proactively push the peacemaker-pacemaker formula to prevent Korea from being bypassed," adding that Seoul should "work with the Department of State to build an agenda and ensure that agenda shapes the substantive agreements or declarations that come out of US-North Korea talks."

He went on to say that Seoul must "persuade Washington that playing a pacemaker role, grounded in the special relationship and standing of the US-South Korea alliance, would also serve America's diplomatic objectives — and secure a stake in the process by any means." He added: "South Korea and the United States need to cooperate to keep denuclearization in check. South Korea's role has become even more important."

Park Won-gon, a professor in the North Korean studies department at Ewha Womans University, said Thursday's missile launch carried the message that "a reduction is not enough — it is a signal to halt all future joint exercises entirely," calling it "a major challenge to South Korea's security."

On how South Korea should respond, Park said "the most important thing right now is to quickly renormalize and solidify the South Korea-US relationship," and recommended that Seoul "work to resolve the issues entangled in this situation — including US investment that Trump has mentioned, the Coupang Inc matter, and contributions to the Strait of Hormuz."


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