Rise driven by more women in their 30s, post-COVID marriage rebound and higher fertility among married women; structural constraints remain

The number of babies born in South Korea from January through April this year approached 100,000, the highest in seven years. The birth growth rate hit an all-time high both for April alone and for the January-to-April cumulative period. Pictured is a children's goods store at a department store in Seoul on Wednesday. [Yonhap]
The number of babies born in South Korea from January through April this year approached 100,000, the highest in seven years. The birth growth rate hit an all-time high both for April alone and for the January-to-April cumulative period. Pictured is a children's goods store at a department store in Seoul on Wednesday. [Yonhap]

Births in South Korea rose 15.5 percent in the first four months of this year compared with the same period last year, continuing a recent upward trend — but analysts say the increase reflects the post-COVID marriage rebound and a rise in births among women in their 30s rather than any fundamental improvement in the country's low birth rate structure. With the pool of women of childbearing age still shrinking and delayed marriage and childlessness on the rise, whether the recent uptick marks a lasting reversal of the long-term trend remains to be seen.

A report published Thursday by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs attributed the recent birth rebound to three combined factors: population growth among women aged 30 to 34, a recovery in marriages postponed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and rising fertility rates among married women in their 30s. The report described the increase as a meaningful development but said further observation is needed before concluding that a structural turnaround is underway.

The institute broke down changes in birth numbers into two components: a population structure effect and a fertility rate effect.

While the decline in births since 2015 was driven mainly by falling fertility rates, the fertility rate effect turned positive from 2024. That year, the shrinking female population reduced births by an estimated 851, but rising fertility rates added 9,149, producing a net increase of 8,298 births. In 2025, the fertility rate effect again outpaced the population effect as the primary driver of birth growth.

Newly married couples in their 30s were at the center of the rebound, the report found. Decomposing the 2024 birth increase, the institute estimated that changes in the childbearing behavior of married women in their 30s accounted for an increase of 14,465 births, while population growth among women aged 30 to 34 contributed an additional 2,224. By contrast, shifts in marital status composition worked in the opposite direction, reducing births by an estimated 8,532.

The normalization of marriages delayed during the COVID-19 pandemic swelled the ranks of newlyweds, who in turn drove increases in first and second births, the report said. In April, the number of marriages reached 20,622 — up 9.0 percent from a year earlier and the highest for that month since 2016.

The growing share of newlyweds likely to have children pushed up first-birth rates, while households with relatively stable child-rearing conditions saw more second and higher-order births. However, the report cautioned against interpreting the current rebound as an overcoming of the low birth rate crisis.

The recent increase depends heavily on temporary factors — namely, population growth among women in their 30s and the marriage recovery. The population of women aged 15 to 49 continues to decline, and the average age at marriage and first birth keeps rising. The share of married women with no children is also trending upward.

The institute projected that the echo-boom generation will sustain growth in the population of women in their 30s through 2030, but that demographic pressure will intensify again after that. Whether the recent rebound represents a temporary recovery or a structural shift in family formation and childbearing behavior will require continuous observation for years to come, the report said.


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