Oh Hyeon-gyu attempts a header during South Korea's Group A match against Mexico at the 2026 North America World Cup. [Yonhap]
Oh Hyeon-gyu attempts a header during South Korea's Group A match against Mexico at the 2026 North America World Cup. [Yonhap]

As the 2026 North America World Cup group stage nears its conclusion, the knockout bracket is taking shape amid growing anticipation over South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32. The Korean national team can secure a place in the knockout round with as little as a draw against South Africa in their final Group A match on Thursday morning (Korean Standard Time).

Many analysts already consider Korea's advancement likely, but the concern is what happens if the team loses to South Africa.

A defeat against South Africa could lead to one of two outcomes. In the worst case, Korea would drop to fourth place in the group and be eliminated. But even a loss would not necessarily end Korea's World Cup — and the key to that scenario is none other than Mexico, the very team that had previously stood in the way of Korea's knockout-stage ambitions.

While Korea and South Africa play their decisive final group match, Mexico will face the Czech Republic in their own Group A closer. If Korea loses to South Africa but Mexico beats the Czech Republic, Korea would finish third in the group and keep their hopes of advancing alive. In this expanded 48-team tournament, the top two teams in each group automatically advance to the round of 32, and the eight best third-place finishers among the 12 groups also earn a spot.

Conversely, if Korea loses to South Africa and Mexico also falls to the Czech Republic, Korea would drop to fourth place and their chances would be gone entirely. Mexico, having already clinched first place in the group, has little reason to push hard against the Czech Republic. Ultimately, the best-case scenario for Korea remains securing at least a draw against South Africa and advancing on their own terms.

ESPN said Korea is "most likely to finish second" in the group, but cautioned that "if Korea loses to South Africa and the Czech Republic beats Mexico, Korea would finish fourth and fail to advance from the group stage."


balme@heraldcorp.com