'An essential legal weapon amid unstable conditions'

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. [Yonhap]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. [Yonhap]

Two years have passed since North Korea and Russia signed their "Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership," and analysts say the two countries' close alliance shows no sign of loosening. With Pyongyang continuing to send large numbers of troops to support Moscow's war in Ukraine in exchange for cash and military technology transfers, the mutual alignment of interests is expected to sustain a near-alliance level of ties for now.

North Korea's Rodong Sinmun recently ran an article headlined "The might of the Korea-Russia alliance relationship is being displayed with ever greater force," praising the June 19, 2024, summit and treaty signing as having established "a powerful legal foundation that can firmly guarantee the future of bilateral relations amid any challenge or difficulty," and said the two countries' relationship had grown closer than ever.

The paper said "the current international situation is growing more chaotic and unstable with each passing day," and described the treaty as "an essential legal weapon for adjusting the regional situation toward relaxation and achieving strategic stability in the world — a reliable guarantee for establishing a new international order and securing a bright future for humanity."

Since the treaty was signed, North Korea and Russia have been strengthening communication across an unprecedentedly broad range of fields — politics, economics, culture, defense, diplomacy and security. The paper cited the ground-breaking ceremony for the Korea-Russia Friendship Hospital, the resumption of passenger flights between Pyongyang and Moscow, and the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia as key achievements.

The paper went on to say that "it is the firm and unwavering position and will of our republic's government and people to closely coordinate in all areas on the basis of the new inter-state treaty and to permanently expand and develop the traditional Korea-Russia friendship," adding that Pyongyang actively supports all policies and measures of the Russian government.

The two countries concluded the alliance treaty at a summit between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024, and have since expanded cooperation across the board.

Particularly notable is Article 4 of the treaty, which obligates either party to provide military assistance without delay if the other is subjected to armed aggression and enters a state of war. On that basis, North Korea is estimated to have sent around 20,000 troops — including combat soldiers and combat engineers — to the Kursk region across four deployments, beginning with the first in October 2024.

NK News, a US-based outlet specializing in North Korea, reported last month, citing a Ukrainian intelligence report, that around 14,000 North Korean troops were stationed in Russia as of early this year and that cumulative casualties since the deployment began are estimated at around 7,000.

The Institute for National Security Strategy estimated that North Korea has earned more than $10 billion (about 13.7 trillion won) from weapons sales since Russia's war in Ukraine began. In exchange for sending troops, North Korea has received not only cash but also military technology, strategic assets, energy supplies and various construction materials.

38 North, a US-based outlet focused on North Korea, cited some experts as saying Russia may have transferred two or three complete reactors to North Korea, and noted the possibility that key components such as cooling systems and reactor cores had been handed over. If so, analysts say North Korea's timeline for deploying nuclear submarines could be moved up by several years.

As North Korea holds summit talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Pyongyang and continues to display close ties with Russia, some analysts say the deepening alignment could affect the pace of the wartime operational control transfer between South Korea and the United States.

Robert O'Brien, who served as national security adviser during Donald Trump's first administration, previously weighed in on the ongoing discussions between Seoul and Washington over the wartime operational control transfer. "We need to proceed very carefully and not leave gaps that China, North Korea, Russia or other adversaries could exploit," he said.


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