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After threatening a major military strike against Iran, the United States abruptly reversed course Thursday, saying a ceasefire deal was imminent — only for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to rebuff the claim, saying "no final conclusion has been reached." Yet Iranian media outlets are themselves assigning a higher probability to a deal this time around. Markets surged in response — Wall Street rallied and oil prices tumbled — though analysts cautioned that the "devil in the details" of any ceasefire agreement has yet to be resolved.
Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he had called off a planned third wave of airstrikes "based on the fact that discussions between (the United States and) the Islamic Republic of Iran have been conveyed to Iran's supreme leadership and received their approval." He also floated a possible signing ceremony in Europe, tentatively this weekend, and said Vice President JD Vance would attend.
Iran pushed back, saying it had not reached a final decision on any ceasefire agreement and that the reported time and venue for a signing ceremony reflected only the American side's position. State-run IRNA news agency, citing Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei, said all reports about when and where a deal would be signed were no more than "speculation."
CNN noted that the pattern — Trump declaring a deal is near, Iran rebuffing the claim — has now repeated itself roughly 40 times. The dynamic was on full display Thursday, when reporters in the Oval Office pressed Trump directly: "You've said several times before that a deal with Iran was imminent — how is this time different?"
Iran did, however, acknowledge that the current round of negotiations has produced more substantive progress than previous rounds. Iran's Fars News Agency, citing a source close to the talks, reported that "as the United States has ultimately accepted the original draft proposed by Iran, it is widely expected that Iran's top leadership will also give the text its final approval."
Markets cheered the prospect of a deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 929.97 points, or 1.86 percent, surpassing the 50,000 mark to finish at 50,848.75. The S&P 500 gained 127.31 points, or 1.75 percent, to close at 7,394.30. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 640.16 points, or 2.54 percent, to close at 25,809.66.
Oil prices tumbled. Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 2.92 percent to $90.38 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures for July delivery settled 2.58 percent lower at $87.71. US government bonds strengthened, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling 0.1 percentage point to 4.45 percent. As investor sentiment improved and appetite for risk assets returned, the dollar weakened — the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against major currencies, fell 0.3 percent. "The path to resolution may not be smooth, but our base scenario is that diplomatic efforts will ultimately prevail," said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer at UBS.
For optimism to become reality, the two sides must still overcome the "devil in the details." Iranian outlets including Fars News reported that the reason a deal now looks more likely is that Trump withdrew additional demands he had made after reviewing a draft memorandum of understanding. US outlets including The Washington Post also reported that Trump had effectively returned to the framework of the 2015 nuclear agreement — the very deal he had long criticized — as the basis for the core nuclear provisions.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, barred Iran from enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels for 15 years. Trump had repeatedly denounced that timeline as too short, vowing to secure a ban of at least 20 years.
Yet the list of issues the United States must resolve in this conflict has grown well beyond denuclearization to include the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the question of transit fees, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. With more variables in play — and with the November midterm elections approaching and the already-underway North American World Cup adding to the pressure on Trump — analysts say it will be difficult for either side to hold firm on the finer points of any agreement.
kate01@heraldcorp.com
