![[AP]](https://wimg.heraldcorp.com/news/cms/2026/06/01/news-p.v1.20260601.c3147b9ff58f4a8fb3367c116f9b964c_P1.jpg)
Japan's population has shrunk by more than 3 million over the past five years, with the pace of decline accelerating amid a deepening low birth rate and aging crisis. The drop rivals the human losses Japan suffered during the Pacific War — but unlike that temporary external shock, analysts say the country has now entered a self-reinforcing demographic cycle driven by structural forces.
According to a preliminary count from Japan's 2025 national census released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications last month, Japan's total population stood at 123,049,524 as of October last year. That marks a decline of 3.09 million, or 2.5 percent, from 2020 — the largest drop since the census began in 1920.
Compared with Japan's peak population of 128.05 million in 2010, the country has lost roughly 5 million people in 15 years. The Nikkei reported that Japan has fallen from 11th to 12th in global population rankings, according to UN estimates, overtaken by Ethiopia.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said the widening natural population decline — driven by low birth rates and aging — was the primary cause.
By region, 45 of Japan's 47 prefectures recorded population declines, with only Tokyo (up 1.4 percent) and Okinawa (up 0.1 percent) posting gains. Notable was the reversal in suburban prefectures surrounding Tokyo — including Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa, which had grown in the previous census — signaling a deepening concentration of population in the capital.
Tokyo's population reached approximately 14.246 million, accounting for 11.6 percent of the national total. Of Japan's 1,719 municipalities, 1,558 — or 90.6 percent — saw their populations fall.
By sex, men numbered 59,778,826 and women 63,270,698, yielding a sex ratio of 94.5 men per 100 women.
A five-year population loss of more than 3 million is unprecedented in Japan since the Pacific War, during which an estimated 3 million military personnel and civilians died.
In the immediate postwar years, Japan rebounded sharply, with rapid economic recovery and the so-called "Dankai generation" — the Japanese baby boom — pushing total population up by 15.3 percent. Today, Japan has lost the momentum needed to reverse its birth rate, and the decline appears to be hardening into a sustained downward trajectory.
Rapid aging lies at the heart of the population decline. The census found that people aged 65 and older made up 29.4 percent of the population — nearly one in three. Those aged 14 and under accounted for just 11.2 percent.
As the childbearing-age population shrinks and the elderly population continues to grow, deaths are increasingly outpacing births — a structural imbalance that is becoming entrenched. Because the base for future births is itself eroding, the pace of decline is likely to accelerate absent a dramatic reversal.
The Japanese government has already shifted its strategy from population growth to managing decline. A population strategy council established in 2024 proposed stabilizing the population at around 80 million by 2100 — focusing less on reversing the trend than on slowing the fall and keeping social systems functional.
Meanwhile, South Korea entered its own era of population decline in 2020, also driven by a low birth rate and aging. Concerns are mounting over a shrinking working-age population and the hollowing out of regional communities. According to the Ministry of Statistics, the decline in the working-age population that began in 2020 is expected to accelerate, with roughly 10 million people projected to exit that cohort over the 15 years from 2030 to 2044.
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rainbow@heraldcorp.com
