FT analysis of leaked Statistics Russia data

War-linked deaths confirmed at about 410,000

Average age of dead rises from 34 to 40

'Recruitment failing to keep pace with losses'

Soldiers of the 18th Combined Arms Army, part of Russia's Dnepr force, clear the wreckage of burned-out vehicles in the village of Velikiye Kopani in the Russian-occupied Kherson region of southern Ukraine on Oct. 27 (local time). [TASS]
Soldiers of the 18th Combined Arms Army, part of Russia's Dnepr force, clear the wreckage of burned-out vehicles in the village of Velikiye Kopani in the Russian-occupied Kherson region of southern Ukraine on Oct. 27 (local time). [TASS]

At least 450,000 Russians have died as a result of the war in Ukraine since Moscow's invasion in 2022 through this past summer, according to a new analysis — with the actual death toll potentially reaching 550,000. The average age of those killed has also climbed from 34 to 40 as the conflict drags on.

The Financial Times reported Friday (local time) that the figures were derived from an analysis of data obtained from Russia's Federal State Statistics Service by the Belarusian anti-government hacker collective Cyber Partisans and the Ukrainian hacker group Silent Crow.

The leaked records, which the hackers claim to have obtained from Russian authorities, cover deaths registered through August of this year. The dataset contains about 11.5 million death-related entries, including information on cause of death, age and region.

About 410,000 deaths in the dataset were classified as directly war-related, according to the Financial Times. Most are believed to be military personnel, though some civilians may be included.

The records also show about 42,000 men of combat age whose deaths were reported through courts by families unable to recover their bodies.

The Financial Times identified an additional roughly 12,000 Russian men believed to have died near the front lines, based on further analysis of location, age and status.

Combined, the figures put Russia's war-related death toll at a minimum of 450,000.

Russia's statistics agency previously acknowledged that a cyberattack had taken place but said it had found no evidence that its database had been breached.

Analysts say the true death toll is likely far higher than the leaked figures suggest.

Reporting delays mean deaths of soldiers who went missing in action or whose bodies were never recovered may not yet appear in the records. Deaths from the 2022 siege of Mariupol in southern Ukraine, for instance, were only entered into administrative records this year.

The Financial Times estimated that, accounting for such delays, the actual death toll as of early August could be around 550,000. If current mortality trends continue, the toll could reach as many as 650,000 by the end of this year.

The heaviest losses have been concentrated in major battlegrounds in the eastern Donetsk region.

About 120,000 deaths were recorded along the northwestern Donetsk front, where cities including Avdiivka and Pokrovsk are located. Around 48,000 more deaths were confirmed in the area around nearby Bakhmut.

The two areas alone account for roughly 168,000 deaths.

That figure far exceeds the approximately 15,000 Soviet soldiers killed during the decade-long war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, and is substantially higher than the roughly 58,000 American troops who died in the Vietnam War.

The rising age of the dead is another striking trend in the data.

The average age of Russian war dead was 34 in 2022 when the conflict began, climbing to 40 last year. Analysts say the shift reflects the growing involvement of older soldiers as the war continues.

Experts say Russia is struggling to offset its sustained, large-scale troop losses through recruitment alone.

Janis Kluge, a Russia specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said casualties in the heaviest months of fighting last year ran into the tens of thousands per month. "Russia's official recruitment target is 35,000, and it has consistently failed to meet it," Kluge said. "It is clear that the pace of recruitment is not keeping up with losses."

The leak emerged amid renewed peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine aimed at ending the war.

The two countries held US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The sides reached a tentative agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange but made no clear breakthrough on territorial issues or the terms for ending the war.

With casualties mounting and core disputes unresolved at the negotiating table, concerns about a prolonged conflict continue to grow.

The leaked statistics also shed light on Russia's broader public health challenges beyond the war.

According to the Financial Times, about 457,000 Russians died of COVID-19 in 2021, the year vaccines were rolled out. The mortality rate relative to population was roughly 2.5 to 3 times higher than in the United Kingdom and the EU.

Deaths linked to HIV and AIDS were also significant. About 85,000 people have died from the diseases since 2021, including 14,000 last year alone.

By comparison, UN estimates put the combined annual HIV/AIDS death toll across North America, Western Europe and Central Europe at fewer than 10,000.


kwater@heraldcorp.com