In 2006, Iraq war fatigue and GOP scandals handed Democrats a landslide; now Hegseth's fate may hinge on an impeachment motion already filed in the House

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth looks on as President Donald Trump meets Steven Hubbard, a prisoner released from Russia, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on Friday (local time). [EPA]
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth looks on as President Donald Trump meets Steven Hubbard, a prisoner released from Russia, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on Friday (local time). [EPA]

The Democratic Party swept the midterm elections, seizing majority control of both the Senate and the House while also capturing more than half of the nation's governorships — and analysts say the Iran war was the decisive factor in the Republican rout.

The war began earlier this year when Donald Trump launched a full-scale military operation against Iran without warning, driving up gasoline and diesel prices across the United States and igniting a wave of voter anger against the administration. Now eight months in, the conflict has pushed energy costs higher and squeezed household budgets, and voters delivered an unmistakable verdict against the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress.

The last time an opposition party swept Congress and a majority of governorships in a single midterm was 20 years ago, during former President George W. Bush's second term. In the 2006 midterms, the then-opposition Democrats won 51 Senate seats (including two independents who caucused with the party), 233 House seats and 28 governorships, taking all three major prizes at once.

By those measures, this year's results are a near-exact replay of 2006, and the reasons for the ruling party's defeat look strikingly similar. Back then, voter frustration over the prolonged Iraq war — fueled by war fatigue and a perceived lack of justification — combined with a string of corruption scandals involving senior Republican officials to hand Democrats their victory.

That environment closely mirrors today's, where public anger over the drawn-out Iran war and allegations that Trump administration officials pursued personal gain combined to devastate Republicans at the polls. Bush's approval rating had fallen to the mid-30s before the 2006 vote; Trump entered this election with his own approval rating at a record low in the low-to-mid 30s.

After the 2006 Republican defeat, Bush moved quickly to accept the public's verdict, firing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and signaling a shift away from the hardline Iraq strategy. The move was widely seen as an attempt to show openness to working with the opposition, while also buying time against the lame-duck dynamic that typically sets in after a midterm loss.

Trump has acknowledged to some degree that the Iran war cost Republicans the election and said he is willing to work with the Democrats who now control Congress. However, he drew a line at firing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was among the most hawkish voices pushing for and prosecuting the Iran war.

Speaking to reporters Thursday, Trump was asked whether he was considering dismissing Hegseth. "No," he said. "I think he's doing a very good job." Hegseth himself has consistently dismissed post-election resignation speculation, saying he intends to remain in his post for the duration of Trump's term.

Yet analysts say Trump may ultimately find it impossible to shield Hegseth if Republican pressure over the election defeat continues to mount and his own political standing narrows further. CBS News reported Thursday, citing sources, that Trump had been calling aides to ask whether Hegseth should stay on.

Democrats, for their part, had vowed ahead of the election that a victory would mean moving to impeach and remove Hegseth from office.

Some observers believe the fate of the impeachment motion already filed against Hegseth in the House will prove the pivotal moment for his political survival. Lawmakers returning to Washington after the election are expected to bring the measure to a vote, and if enough Republicans join Democrats in supporting it, Trump may find it impossible to continue shielding his defense secretary.


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