NABO projects next year's national tax revenue at 593.7 trillion won
Corporate tax expected to exceed 222 trillion won on chipmaker earnings
Next year's national tax revenue will rise by about 113 trillion won from this year's projected level, with 74 percent of that increase coming from corporate taxes, the National Assembly Budget Office projected. A sharp rise in corporate earnings this year, driven by higher semiconductor prices and strong exports, is expected to push next year's corporate tax revenue above 222 trillion won ($166 billion).
According to the office's "2027 NABO National Tax Revenue Outlook" released Wednesday, next year's national tax revenue is projected at 593.7 trillion won — up 113.2 trillion won, or 23.5 percent, from this year's forecast of 480.5 trillion won. That figure also exceeds by 9.3 trillion won, or 1.6 percent, the 584.4 trillion won the government incorporated into its budget proposal for next year.
Corporate tax revenue next year is forecast at 222.1 trillion won, an 83.8 trillion won increase — or 60.6 percent — from this year's projected 138.3 trillion won. That gain accounts for 74 percent of the total projected increase in national tax revenue.
Most of the corporate tax increase is expected to come from self-assessed filings, through which companies report and pay taxes based on their earnings. The office projected that self-assessed corporate tax filings next year will reach 194.5 trillion won, up 82.9 trillion won, or 74.3 percent, from this year. Withholding taxes on interest and dividends are forecast to rise 900 billion won, or 3.3 percent, to 27.6 trillion won.
The semiconductor boom is already feeding into this year's tax receipts. The office projected that corporate tax revenue this year will rise 53.7 trillion won from last year, reflecting improved corporate earnings last year as well as higher interim tax prepayments by chipmakers on the back of strong first-half results. The office also forecast that employment income tax will increase 9.7 trillion won, or 14.1 percent, from last year, driven by expanded performance bonuses at chipmakers and rising nominal wages.
The office's corporate tax projection for next year is 5.4 trillion won, or 2.5 percent, above the government's budget estimate of 216.7 trillion won. Corporate taxes account for more than half of the 9.3 trillion won gap between the government and the office in their overall tax revenue forecasts for next year.
The two projections also differ in the earnings data they used. The government based its corporate tax estimate on company results through the first half of this year, which were available when the budget was drafted. The office incorporated additional data from the preliminary third-quarter earnings of major chipmakers, which showed continued profit growth. The office also applied higher assumptions than the government for capital investment, trade flows and nominal GDP growth, which further widened the gap in corporate tax forecasts.
The pace of corporate tax growth is expected to slow sharply from 2028. The office projected corporate tax revenue that year at 232.3 trillion won, an increase of just 10.2 trillion won from the prior year. That suggests the tax windfall from this year's earnings improvement will be concentrated largely in next year's receipts.
fact0514@heraldcorp.com
