Former Trump aide says US will transfer arms to Taiwan — question is timing and form

Expert says US policy unchanged, but strategic ambiguity deepening due to China

Taiwanese soldiers [Reuters]
Taiwanese soldiers [Reuters]

A senior official from Donald Trump's first administration has argued that US policy toward defending Taiwan against Chinese threats remains unchanged under the second Trump administration, and that Washington should make active use of trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan to that end.

Alexander Gray, former chief of staff and deputy assistant to the president at the White House National Security Council, made the remarks Monday (local time) at a seminar hosted by the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, D.C., stressing that the US must "find ways to leverage the trilateral framework with Japan and South Korea" to defend Taiwan.

Gray recalled the period when China retaliated against Lotte and other major South Korean conglomerates over the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. "Imagine if that framework had existed in 2017 or 2018," he said, referring to the THAAD dispute.

"If Japan had been in a position, alongside the United States, to help absorb some of the economic burden that South Korea was bearing at that time, it would have sent a very powerful signal to China," he said.

Gray also proposed extending regional cooperation frameworks — currently concentrated in the defense sphere — into the economic and supply chain domains. He suggested using the Quad, the four-nation consultative body comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India, to mount a coordinated response to China's economic coercion targeting Taiwan.

Gray said there is no need to read too much into what Trump has or has not said about Taiwan. What matters more, he argued, is that the administration has maintained a consistent position on defending Taiwan — and that the Trump administration has in fact strengthened it.

"The president has viewed Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Indo-Pacific," Gray said. "The fundamental way of looking at the US-Taiwan relationship and crafting policy is firmly grounded in the same foundation on which US Taiwan policy has rested going back to the Truman and Eisenhower eras."

On the argument that delays in a $14 billion arms sale package demonstrate the Trump administration's reluctance to defend Taiwan, Gray was unequivocal. "I don't agree with that view at all," he said.

"The arms sales could be broken into smaller packages, or they could be carried out over a longer period," he said. "It would be surprising if this package did not materialize in some form. It will just look a little different from the historically large sale that was originally discussed."

Michael Cunningham, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, said US presidents have long timed arms sales to Taiwan around their diplomatic schedules with China. "At the earliest, it will be late this year or early next year," he said. "If arms sales go through before the summit with Beijing in November or December, there is a good chance Beijing would cancel the meeting."

Cunningham assessed that while both the first and second Trump administrations have taken a harder line on Taiwan against China than any previous US administration, the current White House is treading carefully after being stung by China's rare earth export controls in the trade war.

"In some ways, this administration is trying to reinforce strategic ambiguity even further," he said. "The reason is China — the recognition that China is a peer competitor of the United States."


mokiya@heraldcorp.com