Trump's diesel deal hands Putin a political win — even if not a drop is sold

Beyond securing $4 billion for Russia,

the deal restrains Ukraine from striking Russian energy sites

and deepens rifts between the US, Ukraine and the EU —

handing Putin both an economic and political win

US President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. [AFP]

US President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia and his demand that Ukraine halt strikes on Russian energy facilities have handed Russian President Vladimir Putin an unexpected political victory, analysts say. The Trump administration has declared that the two sides agreed to an "energy truce" and expressed hope that Russia will now engage more actively in ceasefire negotiations — but analysts say Putin's calculations appear to run in a very different direction. The diesel deal, they argue, is in fact strengthening Russia's hand in the economic war.

Energy experts estimated that if the diesel supply agreement is carried out, roughly $4 billion in American funds could flow into the Russian economy, The New York Times reported Monday. If Ukraine also halts attacks on Russian oil refineries, the economic benefit to Russia could be far greater, the experts said.

As the front lines have settled into a stalemate, the Russia-Ukraine war has shifted into an economic war of attrition — each side trying to erode the other's financial foundations. Experts say that with the military standoff showing no signs of ending, the ability to sustain an economic base has become the pivotal variable determining the war's outcome. Against that backdrop, concerns are growing that if Trump's diesel purchase and his demand that Ukraine stop striking Russian energy infrastructure both take effect, the balance of economic power could tilt further in Russia's favor.

The New York Times assessed that Trump "is trying to tilt the balance of power in favor of Russia, the aggressor," and that the move "could end up supporting Russia in the economic contest that may determine the outcome of the war, even as the two armies remain locked in a stalemate on the front lines."

The Associated Press reported that the US-Russia diesel supply agreement and Trump's criticism of Zelensky are being seen inside the Kremlin as significant political gains. The deal not only contributes to Russia's war financing but could also fracture the united front that Ukraine and its European allies have built against Moscow. Because the agreement deepens the rift between Trump and Zelensky, analysts say Russia's political gains from the deal may ultimately outweigh even its economic benefits.

Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert and head of the intelligence analysis firm Mayak Intelligence, said "even if not a single barrel of Russian diesel is exported, this is a gift to Putin" because it "drives a deeper and wider wedge between Trump and Zelensky."

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters upon arriving at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Saturday (local time). [AFP]

After Zelensky called the diesel deal "an investment in the war," Trump responded by saying "it's time for Ukraine to have a new president." The remark was a pointed jab at the fact that Zelensky remains in power despite his official term having expired — Ukraine has been unable to hold a presidential election because of the war. The logic mirrors what Putin has long argued: that because Zelensky's term has ended, Russia cannot negotiate with his administration, a position Moscow has used to dismiss Ukrainian demands. The AP said the exchange showed that US-Ukraine relations had deteriorated to their worst point since Trump and Zelensky clashed publicly in the Oval Office in February last year.

Despite Trump's announcement of the diesel deal, Russia has not stopped its airstrikes on Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, has effectively been warned by Trump that its weapons supply will be cut off if it strikes Russian energy facilities — making it extremely difficult to hit back. Ukraine depends heavily on the United States for Patriot air defense systems and critical intelligence, meaning any disruption to that support would leave it far more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

Ukraine fears that easing sanctions without securing meaningful concessions from Russia will weaken the leverage Washington can exert over the Kremlin in any future negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media after the Germany-Ukraine Business Forum in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Sunday (local time). [AP]

The Trump-Putin diesel deal could also undermine the EU's sanctions policy toward Russia, analysts warn.

Galeotti said the deal "raises questions about the EU's efforts to sanction the so-called shadow fleet that transports Russian crude to world markets," adding that Europe now finds itself "treated as a subordinate region that must accept whatever policy comes out of the White House." He also predicted that "the agreement could help raise Russia's international standing among developing nations and reinforce its image as a major power worth partnering with."

Tatiana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said the move "could be seen by Putin as a moment of victory," explaining that "Putin has secured a small but concrete economic deal even before a peace agreement is reached — a departure from the position the United States had previously held."

Stanovaya added that Putin may view Trump's current posture as creating more favorable conditions to intensify military pressure, and that Russia's military campaign is focused less on achieving a decisive battlefield breakthrough than on inducing political collapse within Ukraine.

yckim6452@heraldcorp.com