Alaska LNG investment emerges as new variable in Korea-US security talks

Trump announces South Korea's investment as a done deal

Seoul says nothing is finalized, vows to keep negotiating

Experts warn ripple effects on security talks are inevitable

President Lee Jae Myung holds a summit with US President Donald Trump at a hotel in New York on Sept. 22 (local time), during his visit to the United States for the UN General Assembly. [Yonhap]

Progress in South Korea-US investment negotiations had raised hopes that follow-up talks on security issues would also gain momentum — but an unexpected obstacle has emerged: the Alaska LNG project.

US President Donald Trump announced South Korea's $50 billion investment in the project as if it were a foregone conclusion, while Seoul maintains it has not committed to participating and intends to continue negotiations over whether to proceed. Experts say the gap between the two sides over the Alaska LNG project is bound to affect further security consultations, given how closely the investment talks are intertwined with the security agenda.

A joint fact sheet on US-bound investment released by the South Korean government Thursday stated that Seoul would "begin work to advance the Alaska LNG project, subject to commercial viability and compliance with domestic legal requirements." In other words, the government has not finalized its participation and intends to negotiate with Washington over whether to move forward.

Yet on the same day, Trump unilaterally announced that South Korea had agreed to invest in the $50 billion Alaska LNG project. He followed up Friday by warning that if South Korea did not commit to the investment, he would "soon charge double."

Trump did not clarify what he meant by "double," but it was widely interpreted as a reference to the investment amount, tariffs, or both.

President Lee Jae Myung and US President Donald Trump speak at an official welcome dinner hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, on Oct. 7 (local time). [Yonhap]

As the divergence between Seoul and Washington over the Alaska LNG investment widens, concerns are growing that it could also set back long-delayed follow-up consultations on security issues.

Security talks agreed upon at last year's Korea-US summit — covering nuclear-powered submarines and nuclear energy cooperation, among other issues — have shown little progress since their first meeting in June. The government's formal announcement of its US investment package Thursday had raised expectations that the linked security consultations would also pick up pace.

A senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs official acknowledged the slow progress. "We have not advanced as much as we had hoped or expected," the official said, adding that Seoul plans to "restart the security track soon and push the negotiations forward as quickly as possible."

But with the Alaska LNG investment dispute surfacing just as security talks were set to resume, there are fears it could once again put the brakes on those discussions. Because investment and security issues have been closely linked, the two sides' differences over Alaska LNG could affect the atmosphere and pace of security negotiations.

Ko Myung-hyun, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said the Trump administration appears to take a broader view of the linkage between investment and security than Seoul does. "From our perspective, the investment and security issues are connected to some degree, but not entirely — the Trump administration seems to see it differently," Ko said. "We want to use the US investment as a bargaining chip to secure American cooperation on issues like nuclear-powered submarines, but the Trump administration is linking investment and security matters far more broadly."

Analysts also note that Trump's push to highlight US-bound investment achievements ahead of the November midterm elections suggests domestic political considerations are playing a role in the recent pressure on South Korea.

However, the degree to which investment issues intersect with individual security matters may vary, as the interests and negotiating conditions between the two countries differ depending on the specific issue — whether nuclear-powered submarines, the transfer of wartime operational control, or other items on the agenda.

"Some issues align between the two sides and some do not," Ko said. "We need to handle them case by case."

carrier@heraldcorp.com