AfD projected at 37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, nearly double its 2021 result; CDU falls to fourth place with around 5 percent; Merz calls outcome 'catastrophic'

Supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) cheer as exit poll results are announced during an election night event in Magdeburg on Sept. 6 (local time), following the Saxony-Anhalt state election. [Reuters]
Supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) cheer as exit poll results are announced during an election night event in Magdeburg on Sept. 6 (local time), following the Saxony-Anhalt state election. [Reuters]

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was projected to finish first in another former East German state, nearly doubling its vote share in just over four years, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faced a humiliating result that put its very presence in the state parliament in doubt. Merz acknowledged the outcome as a "catastrophe."

Exit polls released by German public broadcaster ARD on Sunday (local time) showed the AfD winning 37.0 percent of the vote in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's parliamentary election, edging out the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 35.5 percent to claim first place.

The result marked a 16.7 percentage-point surge from the AfD's 20.3 percent showing in the 2021 state election — nearly doubling its support in just over four years.

If the exit poll figures hold in the final count, the AfD will have won back-to-back state elections in the former East, following its victory in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6. The results signal that the party's support base in the former East Germany is growing ever more entrenched.

The CDU, whose national party chair is Merz, was projected to suffer a crushing defeat. The ARD poll put the CDU at 5.5 percent — fourth place, behind even the Left Party at 7.5 percent.

A separate ZDF poll put the CDU's projected share even lower, at 5.0 percent. Should the party fall below the 5 percent threshold in the final count, it would fail to meet the minimum required for seat allocation and could be shut out of the state parliament entirely.

The CDU also struggled in Berlin's simultaneous state parliamentary election.

Exit polls there projected the Left Party finishing first with 24.5 percent, while the CDU came in second at 20.0 percent. The AfD was projected at 16.0 percent — a gain of 6.9 percentage points from three years ago.

The CDU had won the 2023 Berlin state election — a rerun held after a ballot paper shortage — with 28.2 percent, finishing first. Sunday's result represented a drop of more than 8 percentage points.

Depending on the final seat distribution and coalition negotiations, the CDU now risks losing the Berlin mayoral seat it had reclaimed for the first time in 22 years. Incumbent CDU Mayor Kai Wegner had already announced he would not seek reelection after it emerged that he had falsely claimed to have been working during a major citywide blackout earlier this year, when he was in fact playing tennis with his girlfriend.

The elections were widely seen as an indirect referendum on Merz's leadership. With controversy over the federal government's direction continuing to mount and the AfD's rise showing no signs of slowing since he took office, calls for Merz to be held accountable are growing louder.

Merz held a news conference at CDU headquarters Sunday evening and called the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern exit poll result a "catastrophe."

"Change requires strength. We cannot please everyone, and in some areas it will take time before results come," he said. "But we accept this responsibility. I, too, will take responsibility, because I want to move our country forward."

With the AfD claiming the top spot in successive former East German states and significantly expanding its support in the capital, the far-right surge in German politics shows no sign of abating.


sjy@heraldcorp.com