WSJ: Iran assembles stockpiled parts in underground facilities, capable of producing hundreds to thousands of missiles

Tehran rebuilds military strength despite US claim of destroying 90% of missile industrial base

Vance, Rubio and other officials warn war could last until end of Trump's term

Iranian missiles are displayed at a square in Tehran in July. [EPA]
Iranian missiles are displayed at a square in Tehran in July. [EPA]

Iran has resumed producing ballistic missiles by assembling parts stockpiled at underground facilities, deepening concerns that the war between the United States and Iran could harden into a prolonged war of attrition as Tehran moves to rebuild its depleted military strength. Inside the White House, officials have reportedly discussed the possibility that the war could drag on until President Donald Trump's term ends in January 2029.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (local time), citing US and Middle East officials, that Iran has restarted ballistic missile production at underground sites despite concentrated strikes the United States and Israel launched on its missile bases and production facilities in the early stages of the war.

Iran has reportedly resumed production of both liquid-propellant missiles, which must be fueled immediately before launch, and solid-propellant missiles, which can be stored ready to fire. The activity has been detected at several underground bases, including a missile facility in Kojir in southeastern Iran. Tehran is also reportedly pushing ahead with construction of new underground assembly sites to avoid further airstrikes.

Output remains lower than before the war, since the United States and Israel destroyed numerous facilities used to manufacture missiles and their components, and a maritime blockade has made it harder to import parts and solid-fuel materials. Even so, Iran continues to turn out new missiles using components stockpiled before the conflict began.

One US official assessed that Iran has the capacity to assemble at least several hundred missiles from its existing stock of parts alone. Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst and visiting research fellow at King's College London, estimated that depending on the size of the stockpile and the number of underground facilities that can be brought online, Iran's output could reach "hundreds, maybe thousands" of missiles.

Sean Parnell, chief spokesperson for the Pentagon, said the United States has "destroyed up to 90 percent of Iran's drone, ballistic missile and naval industrial base," arguing that Iran's attack capability has been severely degraded. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also said in April that Iran's missile program had been "functionally destroyed."

A White House official did not directly address whether Iran has resumed ballistic missile production, but told the Wall Street Journal that "Iran is weaker now than it has ever been, and President Trump will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon."

President Donald Trump speaks at the National Medal of Honor Museum in Texas on Thursday (local time). [AP]
President Donald Trump speaks at the National Medal of Honor Museum in Texas on Thursday (local time). [AP]

The Wall Street Journal noted, however, that Iran's resumption of missile production "undermines a central achievement that the United States and Israel have touted from the war," adding that it "shows how difficult it is to fully dismantle Iran's missile program and strengthens Iran's ability to withstand a war of attrition against the interceptor stockpiles of the United States and Gulf states."

Tal Inbar, chief analyst at the US-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, said, "Without airstrikes on the facilities, Iran can repair damaged infrastructure and buy new parts from other countries to stockpile there." He added, "It is extremely naive to think Iran is not rebuilding its missile production capability."

Iran is reported to have used a brief lull following the end-of-war MOU it signed with the United States in June to accelerate the rebuilding of its military strength. Satellite images have also captured tunnel entrances at missile bases — previously collapsed by airstrikes — being restored, along with signs that production facilities are being rebuilt.

The developments align with the view that the United States and Iran are bracing for a prolonged conflict rather than seeking a quick resolution.

According to Bloomberg, Iran's leadership remains determined to press on with the war, viewing it as a threat to the regime's survival even as economic damage mounts. Iran has said it will escalate strikes on US forces and Gulf assets if Washington intensifies its attacks.

The United States, too, is factoring in the possibility of a long war. The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, said senior White House aides — including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — have told Trump that the war could continue until his term ends in January 2029.

That assessment is markedly at odds with Trump's recent remark that "the war will end immediately once the Nov. 3 midterm elections are over."

With neither side backing down, key sticking points remain unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG once passed, has seen shipping volumes fall sharply amid attacks on vessels and blockades, while the future of Iran's nuclear program also remains uncertain.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to confirm the condition or location of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels since Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025.

As the war drags on, the race between Iran's missile production capacity and the interceptor stockpiles of the United States and Gulf nations is expected to grow more intense.

Nicole Grajewski, an Iran strategy expert at Sciences Po, said, "Facilities or the missiles themselves can be destroyed, but Iran's ability to rebuild its missile program is faster than its nuclear program, and its facilities are considerably dispersed." She added, "This is precisely why Iran built such sophisticated missile infrastructure — because it feared attacks like these."


mokiya@heraldcorp.com