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Bitcoin broke out of a trading range that had persisted for more than 10 weeks, surging to the $78,000 level before plunging back to the $76,000 range during trading — a sign of the sharp volatility gripping the market. Falling US government bond yields, inflows into spot ETFs and expectations of regulatory reform all converged to lift altcoins alongside Bitcoin, and attention is now focused on whether the rebound can carry the cryptocurrency past $80,000.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $77,109 as of 2:25 p.m. Saturday, up 2.41% from 24 hours earlier and 22.27% from a week ago. Bitcoin had been holding the $78,000 level around 2 p.m. before quickly sliding to the $76,000 range and then recovering to around $77,000.

At the same time, Ethereum was trading at $2,437, up 3.48% from 24 hours earlier and 29.53% from a week ago. Ripple (XRP) surged 14.12% in a single day and 48.69% over the week to $1.49, while Solana rose 4.40% and 24.17%, respectively, to $93.68.

Hyperliquid also posted notable gains. HYPE traded at $78.72, up 7.89% from 24 hours earlier and 40.22% from a week ago.

The sharp price swings triggered a wave of leveraged position liquidations. Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter, said on X (formerly Twitter) that "$500 million in long positions were liquidated in 10 minutes," describing the episode as a significant expansion of market volatility.

The digital asset fear-and-greed index stood at 79, in "greed" territory — up 5 points from 74 on Friday and a sharp reversal from 36 ("fear") a week earlier. The index runs from 0 to 100, with lower values indicating weaker investor sentiment.

Analysts point to two main drivers behind the rebound: falling US government bond yields and expectations of deregulation. The US Treasury's decision to expand its long-term bond buyback program pushed long-term yields lower, while slowing employment data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would be less likely to tighten policy further.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the recent Bitcoin rally was "a macro-driven move." Easing inflation concerns and softening labor data had revived expectations of a more accommodative US monetary policy, he said, adding that Bitcoin — sensitive to changes in liquidity and real interest rates — had responded accordingly.

Policy expectations also added momentum. Donald Trump met with senior digital asset industry executives and regulatory officials at the White House on Wednesday to again urge passage of the CLARITY Act, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have been moving to advance their own regulatory frameworks independently of the legislation.

Hong Seong-wook, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said calls from Trump and other senior figures for the CLARITY Act to pass were nothing new. "That has been going on for the past several months, so it is hard to say the probability of the bill passing has changed significantly," he said. "Instead, the market has grown more hopeful that even if the bill does not pass, the SEC and CFTC will actively issue guidelines to fill the legislative gap."

The SEC recently published a proposed rule that would allow digital asset issuers meeting certain requirements to raise funds without separate securities registration. The CFTC also convened a meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee to discuss current market issues.

Hong said policy events had played a significant role in the recent rebound and that regulators had taken a stance that was "clearer and more proactive than expected." "If the market had previously been leaning on the CLARITY Act, expectations are now broadening to include the regulators' own actions," he said.

Further policy announcements could provide additional upside, analysts said. Hong said the SEC's planned "innovation exemption" — a regulatory sandbox-style measure — could be a positive catalyst if it takes concrete shape. He also said that if CFTC discussions on perpetual futures markets led to US market entry by operators such as Hyperliquid, or to licensing for existing players, investor sentiment could improve.

Inflows into spot ETFs have also supported prices. According to SoSoValue, approximately $1.92 billion flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs on a net basis over the past five days.

Kim Ji-won, a researcher at KB Securities, said Bitcoin and Ethereum had broken out of a trading range that had held for more than 10 weeks, driven by policy momentum and expectations of greater liquidity. "The US Treasury's move to at least double the cap on long-term government bond buybacks supported market liquidity and helped drive the rally in digital assets," she said.

Meanwhile, the liquidation of large short positions amplified the gains during the rally. According to CoinDesk, more than $4 billion in digital asset short positions were liquidated over Thursday and Friday.

Hong said the scale of short liquidations suggested that market sentiment had been heavily skewed negative. "It appears that supply and demand conditions were more pessimistic than expected, particularly for Ethereum," he said.

Whether the recent sharp surge will translate into a sustained uptrend remains to be seen, analysts cautioned. Butterfill noted that while Bitcoin whale investors had stopped selling and begun accumulating again, the scale was not large enough to sustain further gains on its own.

"For now, the market is expected to move within a range, with $80,000 serving as an important upper resistance level," he said. "For a more pronounced uptrend, the Federal Reserve needs to send a clear signal that its policy focus has definitively shifted away from further tightening."


kyoung@heraldcorp.com