[Getty Images Bank]
[Getty Images Bank]

Population in the pilot areas for South Korea's rural basic income program has grown 4.93 percent since the project launched, but the influx of residents in their 20s and 30s — the age groups most critical to reversing regional depopulation — has been comparatively weak, a new report shows. Growth was highest among residents 65 and older and lowest among those in their 30s, underscoring that additional policy measures are needed to turn a cash-transfer program into lasting youth settlement.

According to a report released Thursday by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI), titled "Population Trend Changes and Significance in Rural Basic Income Pilot Areas," the registered population across the 10 pilot counties rose from 318,841 in September last year — just before the project was selected — to 334,547 in June this year, an increase of 15,706 people, or 4.93 percent. The seven counties selected in the first round grew by 5.23 percent, while the three added later grew by 4.20 percent.

The following table summarizes population changes across pilot and non-pilot areas (source: KREI):

— Rural basic income pilot areas (10 counties): +4.93% — First-round selected areas (7 counties): +5.23% — Additional selected areas (3 counties): +4.20% — Areas that applied but were not selected (33 counties): −0.33% — Areas that did not apply (19 counties): −0.78%

Over the same period, the 33 counties that applied for the program but were not selected saw their populations fall 0.33 percent, while the 19 counties that did not apply at all shrank by 0.78 percent. KREI said the data confirmed a trend of population growth and stabilization in the pilot areas.

A closer look at the age breakdown, however, reveals a more complicated picture. Population growth in the pilot areas was highest among residents 65 and older and lowest among those in their 30s — suggesting that while the basic income payments coincided with overall population gains, their pull on younger residents was relatively limited.

The same pattern appeared in the composition of new arrivals. Compared with the period before the program, the share of people in their 20s among those moving into pilot areas fell by 3.4 to 4.9 percentage points, while the share of those in their 30s dropped by 3.1 to 3.4 percentage points. Even as the total number of new arrivals increased, young adults in their 20s and 30s made up a smaller share of the inflow.

The findings suggest that while the rural basic income program has shown some potential to shift population trends in depopulating areas over a short period, additional policy support is needed to attract young people and those of childbearing and child-rearing age — the groups most important for countering regional decline.

The rural basic income program provides residents of pilot areas with 150,000 won ($106) per month in local gift certificates for two years. Residents of Sinan and Yeongyang counties receive 200,000 won per month. Newcomers who move in after the program's selection announcement can also receive benefits: those who apply after 30 days of residency and verify 90 days of actual residence receive three months of back payments, with monthly payments continuing thereafter as long as they remain actual residents.

The researchers said pairing the basic income with conditions that allow young people to sustain their lives in rural areas is important. They particularly recommended improving settlement conditions — including housing, childcare and employment — to increase the inflow of residents of childbearing and child-rearing age.

"Population inflow is one of the early outcomes of the basic income pilot program, but ultimately it must translate into income stability for residents and vitality for local communities," Shim Jae-heon, a KREI research fellow, said in the report. "Going forward, it will be necessary to analyze the program's effects on income stability, local commerce and community revitalization in order to comprehensively evaluate its results."


adastra@heraldcorp.com