Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidates Song Young-gil (from left), Jung Chung-rae and Kim Min-seok pose for a photo before a televised debate at KBC in Seo-gu, Gwangju, on Monday afternoon. [Yonhap]
Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidates Song Young-gil (from left), Jung Chung-rae and Kim Min-seok pose for a photo before a televised debate at KBC in Seo-gu, Gwangju, on Monday afternoon. [Yonhap]

A poll released Tuesday showed Kim Min-seok leading the race for the next Democratic Party of Korea leader ahead of the party's Aug. 17 national convention, with 46.8% support. When second-choice votes for Song Young-gil are redistributed, Kim's share rises to 50.6%, clearing a majority.

The survey, conducted by pollster Realmeter on Sunday and Monday among 1,053 Democratic Party supporters and independents nationwide, put Kim at 46.8%, Jung Chung-rae at 35.2% and Song Young-gil at 6.5%. Those responding "none" accounted for 7.9% and "don't know" for 3.6%. The gap between Kim and Jung stood at 11.6 percentage points, placing Kim ahead outside the margin of error.

Redistributing second-choice votes cast for Song gave Kim 50.6% — a majority — while Jung received 37.4%, with 8.3% choosing no candidate and 3.8% saying they did not know. The Democratic Party leadership election uses a preferential voting system in which voters rank candidates first through third. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the third-place candidate's second-choice votes are redistributed to the remaining two.

Among respondents who ranked Kim first, 71.4% named Song as their second choice, followed by Jung at 17.8%, no candidate at 9.0% and don't know at 1.8%. Among Jung's first-choice supporters, Song was the second choice for 36.8%, Kim for 19.8%, no candidate for 33.7% and don't know for 9.7%. Among Song's first-choice supporters, Kim was the second choice for 57.9%, Jung for 33.4%, no candidate for 5.8% and don't know for 2.9%.

In the Honam region — where regional primary voting began Tuesday — Kim led with 57.7%, compared with 28.2% for Jung, a gap of 29.5 percentage points. Song, the only candidate from the Honam region among the three, polled at 6.8%, with 5.6% choosing none and 1.7% saying don't know.

In Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, the race remained within the margin of error. In Seoul, Kim stood at 39.9%, Jung at 34.5% and Song at 5.1%, with 14.1% choosing none and 6.5% saying don't know. In Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, Kim led at 45.5%, followed by Jung at 40.3%, Song at 6.2%, no candidate at 5.9% and don't know at 2.1%. The Incheon regional primary results were announced Saturday, while voting for the Gyeonggi Province regional primary runs from Wednesday through Saturday.

The poll was conducted via automated response system. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.


addressh@heraldcorp.com