Nurses care for newborns in the neonatal ward at CHA Ilsan Medical Center of CHA University of Medicine and Science in Ilsan Dong-gu, Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. [Yonhap]
Nurses care for newborns in the neonatal ward at CHA Ilsan Medical Center of CHA University of Medicine and Science in Ilsan Dong-gu, Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. [Yonhap]

South Korea's total fertility rate is increasingly likely to recover to the 0.9 range this year for the first time in seven years, as the upward trend in births continues. However, despite the recent increase in newborns, a decade of low birth rates has pushed the youth population down by nearly a quarter while the elderly population has grown by more than 60%, deepening the country's demographic aging.

According to the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and population trend data released Sunday by the Ministry of Statistics, the total fertility rate stood at 0.95 in the first quarter of this year. On a monthly basis, the rate was 0.93 in April and 0.85 in May. While the fertility rate typically follows a seasonal pattern — higher in the first half of the year and lower in the second — observers inside and outside the government say the trend through May suggests the annual figure could exceed 0.9.

An annual total fertility rate in the 0.9 range would be the first since 2019, when it reached 0.92. South Korea's fertility rate fell from 1.48 in 2000 to 1.05 in 2017, then dropped below 1.0 for the first time in 2018 at 0.98. It continued to slide to a record low of 0.72 in 2023 before rebounding for two consecutive years — to 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025.

The number of births has also shown a clear upward trend. Cumulative births from January through May totaled 122,694, up 15.2 percent from the same period last year — the highest for that period since 2019 and the fastest growth rate since related statistics began being compiled. If the current trend holds, annual births this year could surpass last year's 254,457 and climb into the high 200,000s.

Experts attribute the recent rise in births to a growing population in their 30s, a recovery in marriage numbers, and shifting social attitudes toward marriage and having children.

However, analysts caution that a rebound in births alone will not be enough to reverse the broader demographic shift.

According to registered census population statistics, the youth population aged 0 to 14 stood at 5.22 million last year, down 24.9 percent from 2015 — the result of annual declines of 2 to 4 percent sustained over the past decade.

Over the same period, the population aged 65 and older surged 62.0 percent, from 6.62 million to 10.72 million, surpassing 10 million for the first time. The growth was even steeper among those aged 85 and older, whose numbers more than doubled from 525,723 to 1.15 million.

As a result, the youth population accounted for just 10.1 percent of the total population last year, while the elderly share rose to 20.7 percent. The trend has continued into this year. According to the National Assembly Budget Office, the youth population share based on resident registration data stood at 10.1 percent as of April, down from 10.5 percent last year, while the elderly share climbed from 20.4 percent to 21.7 percent, further entrenching South Korea's status as a super-aged society.

The OECD also recently flagged the need for structural reforms to address South Korea's low birth rate, aging population and regional disparities in its latest economic survey of the country. The organization recommended that fiscal policy support domestic demand while the government pursues medium- to long-term fiscal sustainability to cope with the effects of aging.


fact0514@heraldcorp.com