Smoke rises from an undisclosed location in footage released by US Central Command on Tuesday showing airstrikes against Iran. [Reuters]
Smoke rises from an undisclosed location in footage released by US Central Command on Tuesday showing airstrikes against Iran. [Reuters]

As Donald Trump escalates military pressure on Iran, US intelligence agencies have concluded that the current pace of airstrikes is unlikely to change Tehran's approach to negotiations. Iran is repairing strike damage faster than expected, and concerns are growing that the United States could be drawn into a prolonged war of attrition.

CNN reported Thursday, citing two US government officials familiar with the matter, that the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency reached that conclusion in a recent assessment of Iran.

The agencies assessed that while US and Israeli strikes have inflicted some damage on Iran's military capabilities, the current level of military action falls short of what would be needed to alter the negotiating strategy or decision-making of Tehran's leadership.

Alex Vatanka, an Iran expert at the Middle East Institute, said Iran "has shown a willingness to absorb economic and military pain in the belief that it can outlast President Trump."

In practice, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz in response to US and Israeli attacks, disrupting global oil supply chains, and demonstrated the effectiveness of asymmetric strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Gulf states, CNN reported.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have added to that pressure on the United States by declaring a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the entrance to the Red Sea.

CNN said that if such conditions persist, the United States risks being drawn into a prolonged conflict resembling the "Forever War" that Trump himself once criticized — one that could bring rising American casualties and a permanent state of tension over Middle Eastern maritime routes.

However, Vatanka said those opposed to diplomacy with the United States "have the perception that America doesn't keep its promises, but they are not the core forces currently leading Iran." He added that Iran's leadership "may conclude that even without trusting Trump, negotiations are preferable to an open-ended war."

Analysts also say the effectiveness of US and Israeli strikes is diminishing over time.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing satellite imagery analysis by Israeli and Western intelligence agencies, that Iran is rebuilding key infrastructure damaged in the strikes — including missile bases, bridges, ports and production facilities — faster than anticipated.

According to the report, tunnel entrances and access roads at a missile base in Kangavar in western Iran, destroyed in strikes in March, were restored within weeks. Collapsed bridges were made passable again within days.

Ran Kochav, a former commander of the Israeli Air Force and Air Defense Command, said Iran "has replenished its missile stockpiles and possesses a very impressive capacity for industrialization and reconstruction."

Analysts also noted that strikes on missile bases focused on collapsing tunnel entrances to block access rather than destroying entire facilities, meaning most weapons stored inside were preserved and Iran needed only excavation work to restore operations.

Newly built missile and drone production facilities were also targeted, but Iran is believed to have already stockpiled sufficient key components below ground.

The Wall Street Journal said the speed of Iran's recovery undermines claims by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the strikes had dealt a devastating blow to Iran's military capabilities.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged all parties Friday in a post on X, formerly Twitter, saying the Middle East situation "is spiraling out of control" and that "it is time for everyone to take a step back."


sjy@heraldcorp.com