Takaichi's approval rating hits cabinet low as public sours on royal succession law, 'closed-door' style

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae is lost in thought during a joint committee meeting of both houses of the National Diet on basic national policy on July 15. [AFP]

The approval rating that once helped Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae weather China's diplomatic pressure has fallen to its lowest point since the cabinet took office. Analysts say her image as a reclusive leader — one who skips evening engagements, eats alone and studies policy in private — is increasingly read by voters as a refusal to communicate. Her handling of the Imperial Household Law revision, which kept women from the line of succession despite her own status as Japan's first female prime minister, is also seen as out of step with public sentiment.

A poll by the centrist-conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, conducted July 24–26 among 1,058 people aged 18 and older and released Monday, put support for the Takaichi cabinet at 57 percent — the lowest since the cabinet launched in October last year. That is a drop of 12 percentage points from the previous month's survey and marks the first time the cabinet's approval rating has fallen below 60 percent in a Yomiuri poll.

Those saying they did not support the cabinet rose to 34 percent, up 13 percentage points from last month's 21 percent. While Takaichi's personal popularity once propped up the Liberal Democratic Party, the dynamic has shifted this year: the party's core base is now helping shore up her sagging numbers. Among voters with no party affiliation, disapproval of the Takaichi cabinet reached 47 percent, outpacing support at 41 percent. Yomiuri noted it was the first time disapproval among unaffiliated voters had exceeded approval.

A similar trend appeared in a poll released the same day by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. A survey conducted July 24–26 by Nikkei and TV Tokyo among 924 men and women aged 18 and older put cabinet support at 58 percent, down 10 percentage points from the previous month.

Those lost 10 points appear to have shifted almost entirely to the disapproval column. Those saying they did not support the cabinet rose to 37 percent, up 10 percentage points from last month.

The flight of unaffiliated voters followed the same pattern. Among those with no party affiliation, disapproval of the Takaichi cabinet rose 15 percentage points from the previous month to 51 percent, with disapproval outpacing support among that group as well.

Polls released by Kyodo News, the Mainichi Shimbun, Jiji Press and the Asahi Shimbun also showed the Takaichi cabinet's approval rating in the 50-percent range, each marking a record low.

Emperor Naruhito (second from left), Princess Aiko and Empress Masako attend a 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Australia and Japan at Tokyo Dome in March. Japan's parliament ultimately declined to recognize women's right to succeed to the throne in the latest revision of the Imperial Household Law. [Getty Images]

The slide is an uncomfortable moment for Takaichi, whose ratings soared last year and remained solid enough through an early general election this year that observers credited her with laying the groundwork for a long-term hold on power. Japanese media have reported a growing perception that Takaichi has failed to adequately explain major decisions — including the Imperial Household Law revision — to the public, a quality being described as a failure to communicate.

Takaichi is said to avoid evening outings with outside figures, preferring to eat alone at the official residence and study policy. The problem, as the public sees it, is that a prime minister who deliberates in isolation shows little willingness to bring the people along.

One concrete indicator is that Takaichi has attended National Diet sessions less frequently than her predecessors. A Kyodo News poll found that 57.5 percent of respondents described the Takaichi administration's management of the Diet as "coercive," compared with 35 percent who called it "cautious."

The Imperial Household Law revision has emerged as a particular liability, with critics saying the outcome hewed to conservative logic rather than public opinion. In the Yomiuri poll, 62 percent of respondents said they did not think the prime minister had sufficiently explained important bills and policies — including the Imperial Household Law revision — to the public, far outpacing the 29 percent who said she had.

The revision was prompted by the fact that Emperor Naruhito has no son, raising questions about the male-only line of succession and the status of female members of the imperial family after marriage. Public opinion leaned clearly toward recognizing women's right to succeed to the throne. The Nikkei poll found that 59 percent of respondents said empresses and matrilineal emperors should both be recognized, while 25 percent said only an empress should be recognized but not a matrilineal emperor. Combined, 84 percent supported some form of female succession.

Yet the revised law kept women barred from succession. Instead, it allows a male-line male descendant of a former imperial family to be adopted into the imperial household, with any son born to that adoptee eligible to succeed to the throne. The individuals eligible under the rule are said to share an ancestor with Emperor Naruhito from some 600 years ago — a relationship of roughly 36th- to 38th-degree kinship.

The prospect of bypassing Emperor Naruhito's own daughter in favor of a male relative dozens of degrees removed drew widespread public disapproval. In the Yomiuri poll, 45 percent said they did not view the adoption of a male-line male descendant of a former imperial family favorably, compared with 40 percent who did. A Kyodo News poll found that 49.6 percent said the Imperial Household Law revision had failed to win public understanding, compared with 44.3 percent who said it had.

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae speaks at a memorial ceremony for former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in Tokyo on July 11. Takaichi built her political identity as a successor to Abe's line, but a sharp drop in her approval rating is now putting cracks in her blueprint for long-term rule. [AFP]

Criticism has also mounted over Takaichi's use of the ruling party's commanding majority in the upper house to push through legislation without seeking public understanding. A Kyodo News poll found that only 24.3 percent of respondents said debate on major policies — including the Waterworks Act revision — had been sufficient.

Rising prices and economic policy have added to Takaichi's troubles. In the Yomiuri poll, 71 percent of respondents said they did not view the Takaichi cabinet's measures to address inflation favorably — up 15 percentage points from the previous survey. It was the first time since the cabinet's launch that negative assessments of economic policy had reached the 70-percent range.

Since signals of a sharp drop in cabinet support began emerging in mid-July following the Imperial Household Law revision, voices within the government and ruling party have called for damage control. The LDP was already badly bruised by a political funds scandal that erupted in 2024.

A cabinet minister close to Takaichi was quoted by Yomiuri as saying, "The numbers have fallen quite a bit. We've been working hard," conveying a sense of bewilderment. At a budget committee session in the lower house Monday, Takaichi was asked by Shina Takeshi, secretary-general of the centrist reform coalition, about the cabinet's approval ratings across various media polls. She said "it would be difficult for me to analyze the cause of the decline" and that she did not know what was behind it.

She said she was "referring to the public's wishes" by consulting policy-related questions in various polls, but signaled she would not take more active steps in response. When Shina pressed her to quickly convene an expert panel to address remaining issues — including the status of empresses and matrilineal emperors — now that the revised Imperial Household Law had passed the Diet, Takaichi said: "I have no intention of establishing a new expert panel right now. For the time being, I will focus all preparations on implementing the revised Imperial Household Law that has been enacted." Her response made clear she intends to concentrate on putting the contested revision into effect.

On inflation, she said her administration had "made price measures the top priority" and claimed Japan was recording "the lowest inflation rate and the highest real wage growth among the G7 nations." She added that she would "keep a close eye on price trends given the uncertain outlook in the Middle East and respond decisively at the right time, including through the use of reserve funds" — but concerns remain that "Sanaenomics," built on an expansionary foundation, will make containing inflation difficult.

kate01@heraldcorp.com