[Yonhap]
[Yonhap]

Samsung Electronics releases its preliminary second-quarter earnings Tuesday, with the market expecting operating profit to surpass 90 trillion won ($58.5 billion) and set yet another all-time record, driven by a semiconductor supercycle and surging demand for AI memory chips.

The company is disclosing its preliminary results for the second quarter of 2026 on Tuesday. Buoyed by favorable semiconductor market conditions and a recovery in technological competitiveness, operating profit is expected to come in at around 90 trillion won. The figures include employee performance-bonus provisions booked across the previous and current quarters; stripping out those one-time costs, some analysts say operating profit could exceed 100 trillion won.

The second-quarter result alone is expected to approach nearly double Samsung's full-year operating profit for last year — 43.6 trillion won — a performance that could put to rest recent concerns about a peak-out in the semiconductor cycle.

A consensus of brokerage forecasts compiled by Yonhap Infomax over the past month puts Samsung's second-quarter consolidated operating profit at 84.16 trillion won, up 1,699.8 percent from 4.68 trillion won in the same period last year.

Consensus revenue for the same period stands at 176.02 trillion won, a 136.06 percent increase from 74.57 trillion won in the second quarter of last year.

If those forecasts prove accurate, Samsung will have set a new all-time quarterly earnings record for three consecutive quarters.

Operating profit would reach nearly double the company's full-year figure in a single quarter. Even against the previous record annual operating profit of 58.89 trillion won, set during the 2018 semiconductor supercycle, the projected figure would be roughly 43 percent higher.

The results include employee performance-bonus provisions spread across the previous and current quarters, which the market estimates at around 20 trillion won.

Excluding those one-time charges, second-quarter operating profit could top 100 trillion won — a level no domestic company has reached, and one that even global tech giants such as Nvidia and Apple have not achieved, with the sole exception of Saudi Aramco's $86.5 billion in the second quarter of 2022.

Revenue is also expected to clear the 170 trillion won mark this quarter, after crossing 130 trillion won for the first time in the previous quarter.

Detailed divisional results will not be disclosed, but the market widely expects the Device Solutions semiconductor division to have driven virtually all of the company-wide performance.

Continued expansion in AI infrastructure investment has kept memory chip supply tight, pushing prices higher not only for HBM but also for commodity memory products.

As AI demand spreads beyond data centers into areas such as physical AI, forecasts increasingly point to memory chip prices remaining strong through at least next year.

Samsung, which holds the world's largest memory production capacity, is positioned to benefit directly from that supply expansion. The company recently began mass-producing HBM4, the sixth-generation HBM, becoming the first in the world to ship the product commercially and further strengthening its position in the high-value memory market.

While some analysts have raised the possibility that the semiconductor cycle could peak in the near term, Samsung is expanding long-term supply agreements with global technology companies and moving to increase production capacity.

The full-year operating profit consensus for Samsung on Yonhap Infomax has also been revised upward, from 366 trillion won based on the past three months to 374 trillion won based on the past month.

The Device Experience division, which handles finished consumer products, is expected to turn in a comparatively weaker performance.

Rising semiconductor and component costs continue to weigh on margins, with the mobile business forecast to post operating profit of between 500 billion won and 1 trillion won, while the TV and home appliance businesses are expected to come in below 100 billion won.

Samsung Display is projected to post operating profit of around 500 billion won, roughly in line with last year, while Harman, which handles the automotive components business, is expected to deliver between 200 billion won and 300 billion won — similar to the previous quarter.

Market attention is focused less on the preliminary figures themselves and more on the forward guidance that follows. Analysts say the direction of the recent "semiconductor peak-out" debate will hinge on what management signals about AI memory demand, HBM supply expansion and the progress of long-term supply agreements.


rainbow@heraldcorp.com