South Korea head coach Hong Myung-bo watches with a grim expression during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group A match against South Africa at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico, on Wednesday (local time). [Yonhap]
South Korea head coach Hong Myung-bo watches with a grim expression during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group A match against South Africa at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico, on Wednesday (local time). [Yonhap]

South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup have fallen from the high 80s to the mid-30s in percentage terms.

According to football statistics firm Opta, South Korea's probability of reaching the round of 32 stands at 36 percent as of Saturday — a drop of more than 50 percentage points from the 87 percent projected after the team's loss to South Africa on Thursday.

Unlike previous 32-team World Cups, where only the top two finishers in each group advanced to the knockout stage, the expanded 48-team format allows the eight best third-place finishers across all groups to qualify as well. South Korea sits third in Group A with one win and two losses, but can still eye a spot in the round of 32 depending on results elsewhere.

Paraguay in Group D, Ecuador in Group E and Sweden in Group F all collected four points, pushing South Korea's odds down from 87 percent to 53 percent. Then Senegal in Group I dealt another blow, thrashing Iraq 5-0 to drop South Korea to seventh among third-place teams and push its qualification odds down further to 36 percent.

If two or more third-place finishers from the remaining Groups G, H, J, K and L end up with more points than South Korea, Hong Myung-bo's side will make an early exit from the 2026 FIFA World Cup.


yeongdai@heraldcorp.com