Third-place finishers can still advance to the round of 32, raising concerns about collusion and reduced tension in group play

[AFP]
[AFP]

"At this World Cup, it has become harder to get eliminated than to advance."

The 2026 North America World Cup — the first to feature 48 teams — is drawing criticism for draining the tension from group-stage play. While there have been dramatic wins, upsets and defeats, analysts say the format's built-in safety net, which allows third-place finishers to advance to the round of 32, has significantly reduced the do-or-die stakes that defined previous tournaments.

South Korea is the most prominent example. Under the previous format, where only the top two teams in each group advanced, South Korea's loss to South Africa in its third group match would have meant immediate elimination. Under this year's expanded format, however, eight of the best third-place finishers across all groups can still advance to the round of 32 based on points and goal difference. South Korea fell off the cliff — but a lifeline remains.

"South Korea's sense of crisis is inevitably limited, because they have a very good chance of finishing among the top eight third-place teams," BBC said. "If this defeat had come at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, South Korea would already be packing their bags."

Granting advancement to third-place finishers was an unavoidable consequence of building a round of 32. Unlike the previous 32-team format, which fit neatly into a bracket of 32, 16, 8, 4 and a final, 48 is not a tournament-friendly number. To fill out the bracket, eight additional teams beyond the top two from each group must be admitted.

The added complexity also raises the prospect of collusion in final group matches. Under the current setup, a team that secures four points is guaranteed a spot in the round of 32 even as a third-place finisher — meaning two teams entering the final round with three points each could mutually benefit from a draw, splitting one point apiece and both advancing without risk.

That scenario appeared to play out in Group D on Friday, when Australia and Paraguay drew 0-0. Both teams had three points going into the match and each picked up one more, securing their places in the round of 32. For South Korea, waiting anxiously in third place on three points, the result was a bitter one.

In Group J, Austria and Algeria enter their final match in the same position — three points each. As with the Australia-Paraguay game, a draw would be a win-win outcome for both sides and the worst possible result for South Korea.

"If the Austria-Algeria match also ends in a draw, controversy over the fairness of this tournament format could grow significantly," BBC said, adding that the tournament "may prompt a rethink about what the perfect number for a World Cup really looks like."


balme@heraldcorp.com