Opta puts South Korea's round-of-32 odds at 92.48%
Czech Republic and South Africa given 30% and 17% chances
South Africa's starting midfielders ruled out of Thursday's match
Monterrey's heat and humidity pose fitness challenge
South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup have been put at more than 90%, though temperatures approaching 35 degrees Celsius in the host city are seen as a potential complication.
Football analytics firm Opta projected Monday that South Korea has a 92.48% probability of reaching the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America, forecasting the team will finish second in Group A behind Mexico.
By contrast, fellow Group A sides Czech Republic and South Africa were given round-of-32 probabilities of 30.21% and 17.76%, respectively.
South Korea will face South Africa in their final Group A match at Monterrey Stadium in Mexico on Thursday morning local time.
A draw would be enough for South Korea to secure advancement. Under the head-to-head tiebreaker rule introduced at this tournament, South Korea would hold second place in the group even if Czech Republic beat Mexico, as long as South Korea avoid defeat against South Africa. South Korea beat Czech Republic 2-1 in their opening group match.
However, if South Korea lose to South Africa and Czech Republic beat Mexico, South Korea would be eliminated. Should Mexico beat Czech Republic, goal difference and goals scored would come into play.
There is also a favorable factor for South Korea: two of South Africa's starting midfielders will miss Thursday's match due to yellow card accumulation and disciplinary suspension.
The biggest variable remains the heat. Monterrey, where the match will be played, sees peak temperatures of around 35 degrees Celsius combined with high humidity, conditions expected to take a heavy toll on players' stamina. The city is widely regarded as one of the most demanding environments in which to play.
The squad had earlier set up a pre-tournament camp in Salt Lake City, Utah — at a similar elevation — to prepare for matches in Guadalajara, which sits roughly 1,571 meters above sea level. Monterrey, by comparison, lies at approximately 540 meters, meaning altitude will be a relatively minor concern there.
hyuk@heraldcorp.com
