Traditional powerhouses still favored despite expanded format, three-country hosting

Spain's World Cup squad member Borja Iglesias [EPA]
Spain's World Cup squad member Borja Iglesias [EPA]

The FIFA 2026 World Cup, the global festival of football, kicked off Friday.

Measured by its symbolic weight as a pure sporting event and its worldwide reach, the World Cup ranks alongside the Summer Olympics and the World Athletics Championships as one of the three premier sporting events on the planet — and by far the most watched and followed of the three. Which nation will lift the trophy is, as always, a question captivating fans everywhere.

This edition is the first in history to be co-hosted across three countries — Mexico, Canada and the United States — spreading matches across a wider range of venues than ever before. The field has also expanded dramatically, from 32 to 48 nations, pushing the total number of matches from 64 to 104.

Despite all those changes, the names in contention for the title remain familiar. Spain is widely regarded as the tournament's top candidate, and a victory would mark the country's first World Cup triumph since the 2010 South Africa edition — a 16-year wait.

Statistics firm Opta gave Spain the highest probability of winning the tournament as of Thursday, at 16.42 percent. France followed at 12.92 percent, with England third at 10.79 percent.

Argentina, chasing back-to-back titles after their 2022 Qatar World Cup triumph and led by Lionel Messi (39, Inter Miami) — known as 'the god of football' — came in fourth at 10.38 percent. Portugal, anchored by Messi's perennial rival Cristiano Ronaldo (41, Al-Nassr), ranked fifth at 6.94 percent.

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group reached the same conclusion using the Elo rating system — originally developed for chess — combined with historical match data, team rankings, scoring ability and geographic factors. Their simulation gave Spain a 26 percent chance of winning the tournament.

Goldman Sachs attributed Spain's strong odds to the squad's depth of clinical finishers, saying the team is stacked with players capable of putting the ball in the net.

ESPN, drawing on projections from the DTAI Sports Analytics Lab at KU Leuven in Belgium, also forecast a Spain victory — predicting the team would beat Argentina 2-1 in the final.

Among the leading candidates for the Golden Boot are Messi and Ronaldo, along with France's Kylian Mbappé (28, Real Madrid) and Ousmane Dembélé (29, Paris Saint-Germain).

FIFA recently named 10 players on its website as the top contenders for the Golden Boot, including Brazil forwards Vinicius Junior (26, Real Madrid) and Raphinha (30, FC Barcelona); Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal (29, Real Sociedad) and Lamine Yamal (19, Barcelona); and Harry Kane (33) and Erling Haaland (26, Manchester City).

Should Mbappé or Kane claim the award, it would mark the first time in World Cup history that a player has won the Golden Boot twice.


yjc@heraldcorp.com