Trump cancels planned third strike on Iran, previews signing ceremony

Claims Iran's supreme leadership has approved deal terms

Iranian media say final approval not yet given but likely

Key sticking points remain on uranium enrichment, Strait of Hormuz

US President Donald Trump speaks as he signs the Secure America Act in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. [Reuters]
US President Donald Trump speaks as he signs the Secure America Act in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. [Reuters]

By Seo Ji-yeon, The Herald Business

The United States and Iran appear to have made a sharp pivot toward a ceasefire deal after two consecutive days of strikes and counterstrikes that had pushed both countries toward broader military conflict. Expectations of a breakthrough surged after Donald Trump canceled a planned third strike on Iran and announced that a signing ceremony for a ceasefire agreement was imminent.

Trump announced Wednesday on social media that he had called off the third strike on Iran, which had been scheduled for that night.

"Based on the fact that the discussions between (the United States and) the Islamic Republic of Iran have been conveyed to and approved by Iran's supreme leadership, I have canceled the strike," he said, adding that the time and location of a signing ceremony would be announced shortly.

If Trump's account is accurate, the two sides have in effect reached a ceasefire agreement and are awaiting only a formal signing.

Iran's response has also grown more positive.

Iran's Fars News Agency reported that, contrary to Trump's claim, the supreme leadership had not yet given its final approval. However, it said the likelihood of final approval was high, given that the United States had ultimately accepted the original framework Iran had proposed.

Trump also told reporters at a White House event Wednesday that negotiations had entered a final drafting stage. With Vice President JD Vance present, he said a signing ceremony could take place in Europe this weekend.

He also said the United States, Israel, mediator Pakistan and a broad coalition of Middle Eastern nations — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt — had all approved the terms of the agreement.

The sudden turnaround stands in sharp contrast to the escalating military exchanges of just days earlier.

After a US Army Apache attack helicopter was shot down over the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the United States resumed airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, and Iran responded with missile and drone strikes of its own.

Yet Trump had signaled the previous day that a deal was close, saying negotiations were "essentially over" and that Iran only needed to sign. That sequence suggests the United States used limited strikes to pressure Iran into a deal, and that Iran's leadership responded — allowing talks to accelerate rapidly.

In practice, the United States had been calibrating its pressure carefully, floating the possibility of seizing Kharg Island — Iran's largest crude oil export hub — while keeping its strikes focused on military targets rather than civilian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges.

Analysts note that Trump also faced mounting pressure to end the conflict quickly, with the North America World Cup having opened Thursday.

International oil prices and US gasoline prices have surged since the war began, intensifying inflationary pressure that has already shown up in recent US consumer price index data. With midterm elections approaching, analysts say Trump could no longer afford to let the economic strain drag on.

However, significant obstacles remain before a final deal can be sealed.

The ceasefire memorandum of understanding currently on the table would extend a truce for 60 days while negotiations on Iran's nuclear program proceed. Trump has repeatedly said the existing draft is insufficient and has pushed for stronger denuclearization conditions.

The central sticking points include whether Iran will halt its uranium enrichment program, how existing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium will be handled, the question of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and any associated transit fees, and the scope of any release of frozen Iranian assets.

If Trump makes substantial concessions to Iran, he risks significant political blowback ahead of the November midterm elections. Conversely, if Iran does not sufficiently accept US demands on its nuclear program, the negotiations could stall again.

Ultimately, analysts say there is little room for confidence until both sides actually sign. Should disagreements resurface during final drafting, the Middle East could quickly return to a state of heightened tension.


sjy@heraldcorp.com