People Power Party wins Seoul, Busan Buk-gap amid divergence between surveys and actual vote count
Exit polls conducted by the three major terrestrial broadcasters — KBS, MBC and SBS — diverged significantly from actual vote counts in Wednesday's local elections and National Assembly by-elections. Analysts say the gap stemmed partly from election law restrictions that bar exit polling of early voters, and partly from a failure to capture so-called "shy conservatives" who declined to reveal their support for the People Power Party in surveys even as the ruling party's approval ratings ran high.
The three broadcasters' joint exit poll projected that the Democratic Party of Korea would win 11 of the 16 regional government head races, with the People Power Party leading in one, and four contests — Busan, Daegu, Gangwon Province and North Jeolla Province — too close to call.
In the Seoul mayoral race, the poll forecast Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-o winning with 51.4 percent against People Power Party incumbent Oh Se-hoon's 46.0 percent, a margin of 5.4 percentage points. In Daegu, People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho was projected to edge out Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum by a razor-thin 0.8 percentage points, 49.9 percent to 49.1 percent.
The National Assembly by-elections were also expected to be tight. In Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi Province, the poll showed Cho Kuk of the Rebuilding Korea Party at 31.1 percent, People Power Party candidate Yoo Eui-dong at 30.6 percent and Democratic Party candidate Kim Yong-nam at 30.3 percent — all within one percentage point of each other. In Busan Buk-gap, Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo led with 42.6 percent against independent Han Dong-hoon's 41.6 percent, a gap of 1.0 percentage point that suggested a ruling-party victory. As counting progressed, however, the actual results diverged sharply from those projections. By around 7:20 a.m. Thursday, Oh Se-hoon's vote share in the Seoul mayoral race had reached 48.66 percent, pulling ahead of Jeong's 48.62 percent.
In the South Gyeongsang Province gubernatorial race, People Power Party candidate Park Wan-su also defied the exit poll to win. The survey had forecast Democratic Party candidate Kim Kyung-soo taking 54.3 percent to Park's 45.7 percent — a gap of 8.6 percentage points. With 97.57 percent of ballots counted as of 9:15 a.m. Thursday, Park secured 51.46 percent against Kim's 48.53 percent, clinching the seat.
Busan Buk-gap produced another upset. Around 1:50 a.m. Thursday, Han Dong-hoon crossed ahead of Ha Jung-woo in what became a decisive lead, ultimately winning with 42.96 percent to Ha's 41.26 percent.
Analysts attributed the exit polls' reduced accuracy to the high early-voting turnout, and offered the interpretation that voters gave another chance to conservatives who had distanced themselves from the so-called "Yoon Again" line.
Political commentator Kim Sang-il said the election recorded the second-highest early-voting rate of any local election in South Korean history. "Because exit polling of early voters is not permitted, the high early-vote share likely amplified the inaccuracy of the survey results," he said.
He added that candidates perceived as having resisted the "Yoon Again" line, or as having suffered politically because of it, shared the common thread of performing relatively well. "In those races, it can be interpreted as moderate conservatives giving those candidates one more chance," he said.
A government official said many voters appeared to have publicly expressed loyalty to President Lee Jae Myung and the Democratic Party, yet when it came down to it — particularly where real estate and other personal interests were at stake — chose the other side at the ballot box. "The conventional wisdom that early voting favors the ruling party also appears to have been disproven," the official said.
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