Han, who campaigned on 'rebuilding conservatism,' wins Busan Buk-gap by-election

Victory vaults him into top tier of conservative presidential contenders

Clash with Jang Dong-hyeok, who expelled him from PPP, now appears inevitable

Jang may seek confidence vote or other moves to hold on to party leadership

People Power Party standing election committee chairman Jang Dong-hyeok leaves after meeting with National Election Commission Chairman Noh Tae-ak at the commission's headquarters in Gwacheon, Gyeonggi Province, on Thursday over a ballot shortage incident. [Yonhap]
People Power Party standing election committee chairman Jang Dong-hyeok leaves after meeting with National Election Commission Chairman Noh Tae-ak at the commission's headquarters in Gwacheon, Gyeonggi Province, on Thursday over a ballot shortage incident. [Yonhap]

Han Dong-hoon, who won the June 3 by-election for the Busan Buk-gap National Assembly seat as an independent, has emerged as the biggest wild card in the coming realignment of South Korea's conservative camp.

Han campaigned throughout the race on a platform of "rebuilding conservatism," making a collision with People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok — who expelled him from the party — and the rest of the PPP leadership all but inevitable. Analysts say the outcome will significantly reshape the contest for the party's next leadership.

According to the National Election Commission, Han won 42.96 percent of the vote in the Busan Buk-gap by-election on Wednesday, defeating Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ha Jung-woo. In his victory remarks, Han said, "Thank you for opening the path to Buk-gu's future and the rebuilding of conservatism through this historic victory."

Political circles are reading the win as a vindication of what they call the "Han Dong-hoon model" of conservatism. Han was expelled from the PPP earlier this year following a controversy over posts on a party members' online board, after which he took the gamble of running as an independent.

A PPP lawmaker told The Herald Business by phone that "voters handed Han the sword of conservative rebuilding, which will make him a leading presidential contender for the conservative camp." Another opposition-side figure said the result "politically proved what has come to be known as the Han Dong-hoon line."

Han's entry into the National Assembly has made the PPP leadership's calculations considerably more complicated. Jang lost eight incumbent regional government heads to the Democratic Party, leaving him hard-pressed to escape responsibility for the overall election defeat. The crushing loss by Park Min-sik — who had positioned himself as a rival to Han in the constituency — is expected to add further pressure on Jang to step down. One PPP insider said, "With the local election defeat and Han's win happening at the same time, won't calls for reform gradually grow louder among lawmakers?"

Pro-Han lawmakers within the party are also expected to raise their voices now that Han has entered the Assembly. Figures aligned with Han — including lawmakers Bae Hyun-jin, Park Jeong-hun, Woo Jae-jun and Han Ji-a — are expected to rally around him and intensify pressure on Jang to resign.

The moves of Yoo Eui-dong, a PPP lawmaker who won the Pyeongtaek-eul by-election, add another variable. Yoo served as head of the Yeouido Institute under Han's party leadership and is considered broadly aligned with the pro-Han camp. Analysts say his next steps could also influence how the intraparty realignment unfolds.

If Han rejoins the PPP, he could run in the next party leadership election. Should Jang — whose term runs through August next year — step down early and the party hold an early leadership convention, Han could either enter the race himself or back a pro-Han candidate to extend his influence. However, analysts also note that Jang is likely to try to maintain his grip on the party by leveraging the PPP's victory in the Seoul mayoral race. Some observers have suggested Jang could put forward options such as a full party membership confidence vote or a strategic resignation followed by a re-run for the party chairmanship.


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