'Fabricated indictment' special prosecutor act passes as moral concerns weigh on Lee's approval rating for 2nd straight week

Gallup Korea's second weekly survey of November puts approval at 39%

Real estate remains top driver of disapproval, but share falls to 17%

'Avoiding own trial' cited by 12%, up 4 percentage points from prior week

Special prosecutor act cleared the National Assembly Friday

President Lee Jae Myung reviews materials presented by an expert at a capital markets policy forum held at the Korea Exchange promotional center in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, on Friday. [Yonhap]

President Lee Jae Myung's job approval rating has hovered around 40 percent for roughly the past month, while the share of respondents citing "avoiding his own trial" as a reason for disapproval has surged 8 percentage points over the same period. Analysts say the Democratic Party of Korea's push to pass the so-called fabricated indictment special prosecutor act through the National Assembly plenary session has begun to weigh on his approval numbers.

In a Gallup Korea survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday among 1,002 adults aged 18 and older nationwide, 39 percent said Lee was performing his duties well, 50 percent said he was not, and 10 percent withheld judgment.

The approval rating slipped 2 percentage points from the previous week. Over the past month, Lee's approval has moved within the margin of error — 39, 40, 39, 41 and 39 percent. Looking back further to the fourth-week survey in August, when disapproval (50 percent) first crossed above approval (42 percent) in what pollsters call a "golden cross," his rating has been boxed in a range of roughly 37 to 42 percent.

Real estate remains the single biggest driver of disapproval. In this week's survey, 17 percent of respondents cited real estate policy as a reason for their negative assessment, placing it at the top of the list. Gallup noted that "real estate policy has consistently ranked as the leading reason for disapproval since the fourth week of July."

That sentiment, however, appears to be gradually improving from its worst point. In the second-week survey in August, conducted Aug. 11 through Aug. 13, 30 percent of respondents named real estate as a reason for disapproval — a spike attributed to the announcement on Aug. 3 of a real estate tax overhaul that raised the comprehensive real estate tax and capital gains tax burden on non-resident single-home owners. The figure began to ease in the third week of August, falling to 28 percent, and has since traced a downward curve into the high teens — between 17 and 19 percent — since October.

The emerging new trigger for the recent dip in approval appears to be concerns over morality — specifically, "avoiding his own trial." In this week's survey, 12 percent of respondents cited "morality and avoiding his own trial" as a reason for disapproval. That is up 4 percentage points from 8 percent recorded in the first-week November survey conducted Nov. 3 through Nov. 5.

Gallup said "the two consecutive weeks of rising moral criticism do not appear unrelated to the National Assembly's passage of the fabricated indictment special prosecutor bill." Throughout last month, the figure had remained relatively stable: 4 percent in the second week of October (Oct. 6 through Oct. 8), 5 percent in the third week, 4 percent in the fourth week (Oct. 20 through Oct. 22), and 5 percent in the fifth week (Oct. 27 through Oct. 29).

The fabricated indictment special prosecutor act, which aims to investigate allegations of manipulated investigations and indictments by prosecutors and others during the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, passed the National Assembly plenary session Friday with the Democratic Party leading the push. The bill covers 17 cases in total, including six cases involving President Lee — among them allegations of development irregularities in Daejang-dong, Wirye new town and Baekhyeon-dong. The bill was not placed on the agenda of the Cabinet meeting held Tuesday and is expected to be put to a vote at next week's Cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Han Seong-sook.

On the special prosecutor act itself, public support outweighs opposition. In this week's survey, 44 percent said they support the fabricated indictment special prosecutor, 37 percent opposed it, and 20 percent said they did not know or declined to answer. However, analysts note that support is relatively weak compared with past special prosecutor investigations. Gallup said "in polling on various special prosecutor proposals over the past decade or so, support has generally hovered around 60 percent while opposition has rarely exceeded 30 percent," adding that "by that standard, support for this fabricated indictment special prosecutor is lower and opposition is higher than usual."

The survey was conducted via telephone interviews using randomly selected virtual mobile phone numbers. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. The contact rate was 43.9 percent and the response rate was 10.1 percent. For further details, visit the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

addressh@heraldcorp.com