Democrats' strict nonproliferation stance threatens Seoul's long-sought goals; 'America First' trade pressure seen continuing regardless of party

Supporters of James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for US Senate in Texas and a state House member, cheer as midterm election results come in at the Long Center for the Performing Arts in Austin, Texas, on Nov. 3 (local time). [AFP]
Supporters of James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for US Senate in Texas and a state House member, cheer as midterm election results come in at the Long Center for the Performing Arts in Austin, Texas, on Nov. 3 (local time). [AFP]

The Democratic Party's sweep of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of the alliance with South Korea, but it could deal a serious blow to Seoul's long-sought goals of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and revising the bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement, analysts said Thursday.

Experts said the election results would not reshape the basic framework of the South Korea-US alliance. The "America First" posture — demanding greater security contributions and investment from allies — commands bipartisan support in Washington, they noted.

"Neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party holds fundamentally different views on the South Korea-US alliance. Things will proceed without major change," said Min Jeong-hun, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. "Democrats also value the alliance, and there is little difference when it comes to alliance modernization and investment in the United States. There may be slight differences on specific policy issues, but nothing more." Kim Jae-cheon, a professor at Sogang University's Graduate School of International Studies, agreed. "On the direction of foreign policy, there is a consensus between the Democratic and Republican parties on America First diplomacy, and Democrats equally believe South Korea must play a much larger role in the alliance," Kim said. "The basic foreign policy style and initiatives of the president cannot fundamentally be changed."

However, key security priorities — particularly nuclear-powered submarines — could run into serious obstacles. Prospects for South Korea acquiring such vessels, and for revising the bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement, had gained traction under the second Donald Trump administration, but the Democratic-controlled Congress is now expected to raise a formidable nonproliferation barrier.

"From South Korea's perspective, President Trump had actually represented something of an opportunity," Kim said. "Issues like nuclear submarines and the revision of the so-called 123 Agreement under Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act were essentially things Trump put on the table." Kim added that Democrats hold a far stricter line on nonproliferation norms. "I think these two long-sought goals for South Korea are essentially dead in the water. The losses may actually outweigh the gains," Kim said.

Min echoed the concern. "Late last year, Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to President Trump warning that if South Korea acquired nuclear submarines and expanded its nuclear authority, it could undermine the nonproliferation principles the United States upholds — that giving South Korea nuclear potential could shake the nonproliferation framework," Min said. "South Korea needs to address those Democratic concerns."

On the transfer of wartime operational control and the presence of US Forces Korea, Min said Democrats were not opposed to the transfer in principle. "Democrats are not saying they won't hand over operational control. They have an aversion to treating the alliance in purely transactional terms, but Democrats are Americans too," Min said. He added that Congress could insert safeguards such as mandating the maintenance of 25,500 USFK troops and requiring regular reports on the operational control transfer roadmap. "Ultimately, if consultations between South Korea and the United States go well and the outcome does not run counter to American interests, it can be done," Min said. On the Iran war, in which South Korea has faced calls to send troops, Min said the Democratic sweep would "provide momentum to enter a negotiating phase, which will help bring the war to an end."

In trade and economic affairs, the 15 percent reciprocal tariff and pressure on South Korean companies to invest in the United States are expected to continue. "Just because Democrats have taken control of both chambers does not mean the 15 percent reciprocal tariff will disappear," Kim said. "Tariffs have a political addictiveness to them — even the Joe Biden administration did not cancel the tariffs from Trump's first term and actually raised tariffs on China further." Kim noted that when former President Biden visited South Korea, he met Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong before meeting then-President Yoon Suk Yeol, and met Hyundai Motor Executive Chair Euisun Chung on his way out — a sign that Democrats, too, regard investment and job creation on American soil as a core priority.

Some observers note that the current Lee Jae Myung administration is not viewed entirely favorably across the US political establishment, regardless of party, meaning the shift in congressional power is unlikely to produce a dramatic breakthrough in the alliance. Supply chain investment demands and trade pressure, they say, are set to continue.


sunpine@heraldcorp.com
sang@heraldcorp.com