Republicans on edge as Democrats lead in 6 of 7 Senate battlegrounds

Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a concert rally in San Antonio on Sunday (local time). [AFP]

With the US midterm elections two days away, Democratic candidates are leading their Republican rivals in most of the competitive states that will determine control of the Senate, according to a new poll.

A final survey released Sunday (local time) by The New York Times and Siena College showed Democrats ahead in six of seven battleground states.

The most striking result came in Texas, long a Republican stronghold, where Democratic candidate James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 7 percentage points — 50 percent to 43 percent. No Democrat has won a Senate seat in Texas since 1988.

In Kansas, another deeply red state that last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton led incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49 percent to 44 percent — a 5-point margin. President Donald Trump had carried Kansas by more than 10 percentage points in the last presidential election, boosted by the state's large agricultural workforce.

In Maine, Democratic candidate Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, the Democratic candidate also held a 5-point advantage over the Republican, 49 percent to 44 percent.

Democratic Maine Senate candidate Troy Jackson speaks at a meet-the-voters event at Fireside Tavern in Falmouth on Sunday (local time). [AFP]

Even in Alaska — a state Trump has repeatedly championed, including by touting an unconfirmed South Korean LNG investment as a done deal — the incumbent Republican trailed the Democratic challenger. Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, running for the Senate, led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48 percent to 46 percent.

In Michigan, the only one of the seven battlegrounds where Democrats currently hold a seat, the Democratic candidate led by 11 points, suggesting a comfortable hold. Iowa was effectively a toss-up, with the two candidates running neck and neck.

The New York Times attributed the Democratic advantage to growing voter dissatisfaction with Trump and the state of the economy. Across the seven states surveyed, only 38 percent of respondents gave Trump a positive job approval rating. On the question of which party would better handle the cost of living, Democrats held an average 9-point edge across all seven battlegrounds.

Democrats appeared to have recovered support among young voters and Latino voters lost in the last presidential election, while Republicans saw some erosion among their core base of white voters without college degrees.

However, analysts cautioned that a large pool of undecided voters means the polling advantage may not translate directly into results. Among voters who made up their minds in the past month, Republicans were preferred by a 9-point margin over Democrats — suggesting late-deciding voters may break toward the GOP as Election Day approaches.

Past polls have also at times failed to accurately capture the preferences of white working-class voters, who tend to lean Republican.

To win a Senate majority, Democrats must hold all 45 of their current seats while flipping at least four of the 53 seats held by Republicans.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to Sunday (local time) among voters in seven states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

kate01@heraldcorp.com