Elementary school-age population to plunge to 1.5 million by 2031

Draft-eligible population to fall to 141,000 by 2040

Demographic cliff to hit education, defense and labor markets

The number of university freshmen nationwide is projected to shrink to about 192,000 by 2040 — roughly matching the current combined enrollment capacity of universities in Greater Seoul — according to a new analysis.

With the elementary school-age population and the pool of draft-eligible men also set to fall sharply, analysts warn that the shock of South Korea's low birth rate is poised to ripple across education, national defense and the broader labor market.

Prospective university students and their parents wait in line to enter a college admissions fair in Seoul. [Newsis]
Prospective university students and their parents wait in line to enter a college admissions fair in Seoul. [Newsis]

Min Bo-gyeong, research planning director at the National Assembly Futures Institute, presented the projections Thursday at a seminar titled "Demographic Structural Change: South Korea's Future and Response Directions," according to the Ministry of Planning and Budget and the National Assembly Futures Institute.

Applying the 2024 college enrollment rate of 73.6 percent, the analysis projects that the number of expected university entrants will fall from 299,000 in 2035 to 192,000 in 2040. That figure is comparable to the 2025 enrollment capacity of universities in Greater Seoul — 181,000 — and amounts to just 43 percent of the national university enrollment quota of 449,000.

The pool of prospective university entrants is itself expected to shrink by more than half, from 497,000 in 2026 to 230,000 in 2042.

The root cause of the declining school-age population is the sharp drop in births. The number of newborns fell 48 percent, from 438,000 in 2015 to 230,000 in 2023. Births rebounded from 2024, reaching 254,000 in 2025, but analysts say the steep decline in children already born makes a further drop in student numbers unavoidable.

Elementary schools will feel the impact first. The elementary school-age population is forecast to fall 46 percent, from about 2.77 million in 2019 to about 1.5 million in 2031. By 2027, every grade in elementary school will consist entirely of children born after 2015, making the decline in school-age enrollment even more pronounced, the analysis found.

The pool of military conscripts is also expected to shrink significantly. The male population aged 20 is projected to drop below 200,000 by 2038, and the number of men eligible for active-duty service is forecast to fall about 34 percent — from 213,000 in 2025 to 141,000 in 2040 — before declining further to 106,000 by 2045. The figures are based on the 2025 active-duty fitness rate of 89 percent.

The labor market will also begin to feel the full weight of population decline. The working-age population already peaked in 2018, and the economically active population is projected to reach about 29.49 million in 2027 before entering a sustained decline.

The youth population — those aged 19 to 34 — is of particular concern, expected to shrink about 59 percent from about 10.96 million in 2020 to about 4.51 million in 2072, raising fears of a simultaneous weakening of labor supply and domestic demand.

The regional impact will be uneven. Between 2010 and 2025, 80 percent of university enrollment quota reductions were concentrated outside Greater Seoul, while the net inflow of people in their 20s and 30s into the capital region nearly doubled, from 48,000 in 2010 to 93,000 in 2020.

Analysts warn this dynamic could set off a cycle in which regional universities struggle to recruit students, accelerating the outflow of young people and the contraction of local industries. Rural and coastal communities outside Greater Seoul could see the spread of so-called "lifestyle deserts" — areas where access to basic living infrastructure deteriorates sharply.

Min projected that the effects of population decline will unfold sequentially: hitting elementary schools in 2027, universities in 2034, the military in 2038 and the labor market in the 2040s. Universities, the military and industry will increasingly compete for a shrinking pool of young people, while the decline in the school-age population could compound the financial difficulties of regional universities, accelerate youth outmigration and weaken local economies.

Min called for a redesign of national systems — spanning education, defense, labor, industry and regional policy — that goes beyond piecemeal adjustments by individual ministries. Setting response priorities must account for the different timelines at which population decline will affect each sector and the lag before policy measures take effect, Min said, adding that a broad social consensus on adaptation strategies must be built on that foundation.


y2k@heraldcorp.com