Taiwan scholar: China's purge not over, will continue through next year's party congress

A Taiwan expert has predicted that the large-scale purge of senior Chinese officials will continue through next year's party congress, as the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Central Committee opened its fifth plenary session — the 20th Fifth Plenum — in closed session Monday. Attention is focused on Xi Jinping's moves to consolidate power amid observations that as many as 45 Central Committee members could be expelled at the plenum.

According to Taiwan's Liberty Times and other local media, Hong Yao-nan, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Tamkang University in Taiwan, made the forecast Tuesday at a symposium titled "Changing Taiwan, America and China," hosted by the Taiwan Inspiration Association.

Hong said that ahead of the 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session last October, nine senior officials — including He Weidong, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission who ranked third in the military hierarchy — were expelled from the CCP and the military.

Hong said no replacement military appointments were announced at the fourth plenum, adding that the purge of senior military figures had weakened continuity of command in the short term but had strengthened Xi's political control over the military.

Hong said the theme of the current fifth plenum — "comprehensively and strictly governing the party" — suggests the purge is not yet over and will continue through the 21st Party Congress next year, at which Xi's bid for a fourth term is expected to be decided.

Ming Pao reported Tuesday that about 45 members are expected to be expelled at the fifth plenum, running Monday through Saturday, including Liu Jianchao, the former head of the CCP's International Liaison Department who had once been mentioned as a potential future foreign minister.

Citing its own tally, Ming Pao said 22 full Central Committee members and six alternate members had officially lost their positions or their seats in the National People's Congress — the Chinese legislature — over the past year amid an anti-corruption campaign within the CCP. The paper added that more than 10 others had "disappeared" from the military, party or government without any official announcement.

Hong also said three major events related to Taiwan warrant close attention over the next 60 days: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, from Nov. 18 to 19; the timing and format of a potential US announcement on a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan that Washington has been delaying; and how the Chinese military behaves following Taiwan's local elections scheduled for Nov. 28.

mokiya@heraldcorp.com