Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates [Getty Images]
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates [Getty Images]

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who has repeatedly raised alarms about the dangers of AI, has predicted that the technology could unleash the most disruptive period in human history over the next two decades.

Speaking on the podcast Decoder on Tuesday (local time), Gates said AI would generate genuine abundance but warned that the next 20 years would be "the most disruptive period in human history," according to Yonhap.

"My biggest concern is a 20-year transition period where there are winners and losers and enormous disruption," Gates said, adding that human labor would eventually become unnecessary "for virtually any goods or services."

He added that "activities like art, sports, cooking and childcare could remain uniquely human domains even if AI does them better," while urging policymakers to weigh in on how society should respond.

He illustrated the stakes with a pointed hypothetical: "If AI says to me, 'I'm better than you — go play pickleball (a racket sport similar to tennis). I'll handle this and get back to you later,' that's not something you can just laugh off."

In a separate interview with The Observer, the sister publication of Britain's Guardian, Gates described AI as an "evolutionary event" — "a change in the stage of life on Earth, like the evolution from apes to humans."

"The smartest entity is being redefined," he said, adding that humans are no longer the most intelligent beings on the planet.

Gates said mathematicians would enjoy perhaps five more years of primacy, but that at some point within the next two decades "AI will surpass humans in mathematics, biology and engineering design." "We are at a very dramatic point in history," he said.

Gates acknowledged that even he — a pioneer of the technology industry — had already fallen behind AI.

"Around the end of last year, I realized that the coding skills I had been obsessed with since I was 13 had essentially become worthless," he said, adding that no human can now claim to be the world's best coder.

'AI powerful enough to trigger 1 billion deaths'

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates [Getty Images]
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates [Getty Images]

Gates had earlier urged governments to strengthen AI regulation, warning that the technology could cause mass casualties if it fell into the wrong hands.

In an NBC interview partially released Sept. 25 (local time), Gates warned that "AI is clearly powerful enough to trigger an event that causes 1 billion deaths," adding that while it would be "very difficult" for such a catastrophe to reach 100 percent of humanity, "there has never been a weapon as powerful as what malicious actors could assemble by combining the latest AI tools." Yonhap reported the remarks at the time.

He said the US federal government must pass legislation establishing safeguards and oversight mechanisms for AI development.

"Nobody thinks self-regulation alone is sufficient," Gates said, adding that relevant legislation might place some burden on the industry but would not significantly slow AI development.

Gates drew a distinction between the near-term risk of terrorists or rogue states exploiting AI and the longer-term "existential risk" of AI threatening humanity as a whole. He has also previously argued that some jobs should be designated as "human-only," citing concerns about AI-driven disruption in the labor market.


yul@heraldcorp.com