Capex estimates keep rising with each tally; sharp market drop from high rates seen as unlikely
Investors holding shares in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix — the pair often referred to together as "Samjeonnix" — still have reason to believe in the AI investment cycle, an analyst said Friday. Despite the drag of high interest rates, AI spending continues to grow, keeping the investment case for South Korea's semiconductor stocks intact.
Choi Chang-gyu, head of the ETF consulting division at Mirae Asset Global Investments, made the remarks at the Herald Money Festa 2026, held at Dongdaemun Design Plaza in Jung-gu, Seoul. "Next year's capex is expected to reach $1.2 trillion, and every time we tally it up, the figure keeps rising," Choi said.
"The more data centers are built, the more demand there will be for both HBM and NAND," he said. "Investors holding Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can trust the capex numbers."
Capex refers to capital expenditure that companies commit to building the infrastructure underpinning the AI industry, including data centers and servers. Demand for HBM — high-bandwidth memory used for AI computing — and NAND, the non-volatile memory used for data storage, is directly tied to the pace of data center expansion.
Choi said the AI investment cycle would hold even if interest rate pressures persist. "Rates are a headwind, but they won't derail the AI industry," he said. "There won't be a fundamental problem for AI."
On the US benchmark interest rate — a key source of downward pressure on equity markets — Choi projected that rates would be held steady in October, with a possible hike in December. "The US situation isn't comfortable enough to raise rates right away," he said. "Even if rates go up in December to rein in inflation, they won't hike twice before the midterm elections."
He also played down the risk of a sharp market selloff driven by high rates. "There's talk that stocks could drop sharply because rates are too high, but the market has built up a tolerance and high rates are already priced in to a considerable degree," Choi said. "Companies are still making good money even in a high-rate environment."
Mirae Asset Group participated in the Herald Money Festa 2026 both through Choi's appearance on an ETF session panel — where he discussed sectors and investment strategies for a volatile market — and through a dedicated booth where staff engaged directly with visitors throughout the event.
At the Mirae Asset Securities booth, consultants offered in-depth guidance on products including pension plans, ETFs and retail government bonds. Visitors showed strong interest in flagship products under Mirae Asset Global Investments' TIGER ETF brand — including index-tracking funds linked to the US S&P 500 and US NASDAQ 100 — as well as thematic products covering AI, semiconductors, AI power infrastructure, shipbuilding and gold. Inquiries about long-term investment through retirement accounts also ran high after retail government bonds became eligible for defined-contribution and individual retirement pension accounts starting in September this year.
kacew@heraldcorp.com
