60% of pre-sale sites in 3rd-generation new towns face delayed full subscriptions

21 of 35 pre-sale sites behind schedule

Namyangju Wangsuk A20 block delayed 19 months

President Lee pushes for faster 3rd-gen new town delivery

Pan-government task force convenes on public housing land delays

An aerial view of the Changneung district in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. [Herald DB]

As the government pushes faster housing supply as a core policy priority, 60 percent of third-generation new town sites that held pre-sales have fallen behind schedule for their full subscription rounds. Delays in relocation and demolition work stemming from land compensation disputes — compounded by other factors — have pushed back move-in dates by anywhere from several months to several years. Critics say the prolonged process, set against sharply rising construction costs, has driven final pre-sale prices well above initial estimates, leaving early applicants to bear the consequences.

According to data the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport submitted to the National Assembly's land and transport committee Saturday, 21 of the 35 third-generation new town sites that conducted pre-sales — 60 percent — have seen their full subscription rounds delayed by at least one month from the originally scheduled dates. Six additional sites have yet to reach their subscription window, and analysts expect the overall delay rate to climb further as those deadlines approach.

Among the most affected, the Namyangju Wangsuk A20 block held its pre-sale in late February 2022 and had been set for a full subscription in March this year, but slow relocation and demolition work has pushed that back 19 months to October next year. The Namyangju Wangsuk 2 A4 block, which ran its pre-sale around the same time, has also seen its full subscription slip from March this year to June next year — a delay of more than a year.

The Namyangju Wangsuk 2 A2 block, which had been set to begin its full subscription process in mid-September, has been pushed back roughly six months to March next year. Several sites that completed their full subscriptions in the first half of this year — including Namyangju Wangsuk 2 A1 and A3, Incheon Gyeyang A9, and Goyang Changneung S1, S3 and S4 — also ran behind their original schedules by as little as one month and as much as 19 months.

Seven sites, however, came in within one month of their original targets: Goyang Changneung A4, S5 and S6, and Bucheon Daejang A5, A6, A7 and A8. Incheon Gyeyang A6 actually moved up its timeline after a construction start date adjustment, completing its full subscription last month instead of the originally planned December this year.

The Hanam Gyosan district, a third-generation new town site, and nearby apartment complexes in Sinjang-dong. [Herald DB]

The core concern is that delays in relocation, demolition, construction starts and full subscriptions translate directly into postponed move-in dates, widening the gap in Greater Seoul housing supply. Pre-sale winners are being forced to revise their moving plans, while surging construction costs driven by higher material and labor prices are piling onto project budgets — pushing final pre-sale prices far beyond initial estimates at site after site.

The most recently completed full subscription, for the Incheon Gyeyang A6 block, set the confirmed pre-sale price for an 84-square-meter unit at 714.33 million won ($525,000) — more than 180 million won above the estimated price of 527.7 million won at the time of the pre-sale in September 2023. At the Namyangju Wangsuk 2 A3 block, which held its pre-sale in October 2021, the price for an 84-square-meter unit climbed from 563.3 million won to 732.45 million won, a rise of nearly 170 million won.

Pre-sale prices at third-generation new town sites that have moved from pre-sale to full subscription have risen 20 to 30 percent above initial estimates, and the number of pre-sale winners dropping out is growing. At the Goyang Changneung S1 block, which completed its full subscription in late April, 150 of the 362 pre-sale winners declined to proceed. At the Namyangju Wangsuk 2 A1 and A3 blocks, which held their full subscriptions around the same time, non-participation rates among pre-sale winners stood at 29 percent and 26 percent, respectively.

K, who won a pre-sale spot in the Namyangju Wangsuk 2 A7 block in 2024, said the uncertainty is taking a daily toll. "I'm anxious every day hearing that prices in the third-generation new towns keep going up," K said. "I'm living in a rented home near an elementary school for my children while I wait, but I have no idea how much further the schedule will slip — and I can't predict the loan situation or the final price. It feels hopeless."

Against this backdrop, the government has launched an all-out effort to minimize delays at third-generation new town and other public housing land projects. President Lee Jae Myung called for an accelerated push on the third-generation new towns in July through streamlined permitting and approval procedures. At a real estate policy forum at the time, he said ground-breaking delays at the third-generation new towns were "a truly serious problem" and added that the government was internally reviewing ways to cut the roughly 60-month timeline to less than half.

Shortly after Lee's remarks, the government formed a pan-government task force on public housing land to coordinate with related ministries and agencies on resolving bottlenecks in public land development. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy, and the Cultural Heritage Administration are among the participants working to find solutions to outstanding issues.

Newly appointed Land Minister Hong Ji-seon also made the Bucheon Daejang public housing district — a third-generation new town site — her first field visit after taking office Tuesday, reviewing the project's progress. At the site, Hong said it was critical to "strictly honor the promised supply schedule and quality standards" and called on officials to "raise the overall level of safety and quality across third-generation new town and other public housing districts."

hwshin@heraldcorp.com