US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney [Getty Images]
US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney [Getty Images]

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is preparing for worst-case scenarios, including the possibility of US military action against Canada.

In an interview with The New York Times published Wednesday (local time), Carney was asked whether he took seriously Donald Trump's threat to make Canada the 51st US state, Yonhap reported.

Relations between the United States and Canada have been deteriorating since Trump's second administration took office. The two countries had long maintained a close alliance.

Carney said he had carefully examined the possibility of US-led military action. He added that anyone in his position has a duty to consider extreme tail risks — low-probability events that carry severe consequences if they occur. "This is simply risk management," he said. "It's not the base scenario, but failing to prepare would be irresponsible."

Carney also said Canada needs to reduce its dependence on the United States.

He specifically mentioned cutting reliance on SpaceX's Starlink satellite network, exploring alternatives to purchasing F-35 fighter jets, and deepening economic ties with China.

On Starlink in particular, he said Canada would "without question" pursue diversification. "From a defense perspective, if we pool resources with other partners — Europe, South Korea and others — we can achieve economies of scale and break the dependency," he said.

The United States and Canada have been locked in a standoff, trading retaliatory tariffs after trade negotiations collapsed last month. However, Carney said the door to resuming talks remains open.

"There is obviously a mutually beneficial trade agreement to be had between Canada and the United States," he said, pointing to potash — a key fertilizer ingredient — as one item that could be brought to the negotiating table.

Carney raised the possibility of granting the United States special access to Canadian potash, saying, "I think that's negotiable, and there are other examples, so we are ready to cooperate."

Trump eyes Belarus potash deal, bypassing Canada

Trump has said he is pursuing a major contract to buy potash fertilizer from Belarus, a Russian ally, in lieu of Canadian supplies.

On Monday (local time), Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States "is in the process of making a very large deal to buy Potash from Belarus," adding that the price "will be much cheaper than what we are currently paying Canada. This is great news for our farmers and ranchers."

Reuters reported that the United States imports most of its potash from Canada. The fertilizer helps boost crop yields by improving plants' resistance to disease and pests.

AFP reported that Trump announced his intention to purchase the fertilizer even as the United States seeks to engage with Belarus — a country whose authorities have cracked down on dissidents and supported Russia's war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the United States and Canada have also sparred over the possibility of Canada becoming an associate member of the EU.


yul@heraldcorp.com