Pre-sale results diverge sharply between Bundang and Bucheon complexes

'Barrier to entry has grown for people in their 30s … some buying older units instead'

A notice about housing subscription accounts posted at a commercial bank branch in Seoul. [Yonhap]
A notice about housing subscription accounts posted at a commercial bank branch in Seoul. [Yonhap]

More than 440,000 housing subscription account holders have closed their accounts so far this year, as soaring pre-sale prices and tightening loan regulations make homeownership through the apartment subscription system increasingly out of reach. The divide in the pre-sale market is also sharpening, with subscription results varying starkly depending on location and price competitiveness.

According to the Korea Real Estate Board's subscription platform, the total number of housing subscription account holders stood at 25,740,524 as of the end of August. That is down 33,301 from the previous month and 632,745 fewer than the same month last year, when the figure was 26,373,269.

The decline has accelerated this year. At the end of last year, there were 26,184,107 account holders, but that number fell by 443,583 in just eight months — already far exceeding the full-year drop of 301,116 recorded last year.

Membership peaked at 28,599,279 in June 2022 and has been declining ever since. The current figure is down about 2,858,755 — roughly 10 percent — from that peak, meaning the exodus has continued for more than four years. Even at the end of last year, membership had fallen by more than 300,000 from the year before.

Behind the waning appeal of housing subscription accounts is a rising bar for winning a unit. The average subscription score for Seoul apartments last year was 65.81 points, the highest since related statistics were first made public in 2020. After falling to 47.69 points in 2022, the average score climbed to 56.17 in 2023, 59.68 in 2024, and surpassed 65 points last year.

The burden of pre-sale prices is also growing. According to the Korea Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation, the average pre-sale price of private apartments in Seoul over the past year stood at 62.87 million won ($46,200) per 3.3 square meters as of the end of last month. That is up about 34 percent from 46.84 million won per 3.3 square meters in August last year. The average pre-sale price has remained above 60 million won per 3.3 square meters for four consecutive months since hitting a record high of 63.55 million won in May.

High pre-sale prices are increasingly dividing buyer demand in the subscription market. The Thesharp Bundang Highest complex in Jeongja-dong, Bundang-gu, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, being developed by Posco E&C, carries a maximum pre-sale price of 2.98 billion won for its 84-square-meter units, approaching 3 billion won. In the first-priority local subscription held Tuesday, 264 applicants competed for 68 units, yielding an average ratio of 3.88 to 1 — but the 84-square-meter Type B fell short, drawing only three applicants for five units.

By contrast, the 66-square-meter Type A, which carries a lower price, drew 150 applicants for 28 units, a ratio of 5.36 to 1. Even within the same complex, subscription demand split along price lines.

Earlier, the Sangdong Station Lotte Castle Signature complex in Bucheon, Gyeonggi Province, which opened for subscription last month, also failed to fill some unit types amid controversy over its high pre-sale prices. The maximum pre-sale price for its 84-square-meter units was 1.64 billion won, and first-priority subscriptions drew 2,576 applicants for 1,536 units, for an average competition ratio of just 1.68 to 1. Several unit types, including the 84-square-meter Type D, fell short of their targets.

On the same day, the KGM The Platinum Seodaemun complex in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, drew 1,112 applicants for 28 general-supply units, recording an average ratio of 39.71 to 1. The maximum pre-sale price for its 84-square-meter units was 1.37 billion won — up to 260 million won lower than the Sangdong Station Lotte Castle Signature. Analysts say the results underscore how price competitiveness relative to surrounding market prices, not just location, is now driving subscription outcomes.

"The combination of higher subscription scores and elevated pre-sale prices has already created a significant barrier to entry for people in their 30s, who have traditionally been the core demand base for housing subscription accounts," said Yun Su-min, a real estate specialist at NH NongHyup Bank. "Unless someone is targeting public pre-sale housing outside Seoul, there is little incentive to keep a subscription account." He added that a considerable number of young people this year have entered the housing market by purchasing older apartments in Seoul rather than going through the subscription system, and that the decline in account holders is likely to continue for now.


quq@heraldcorp.com